Closing spread
CHI -7.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
-1.3est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.039EPA / play-0.111
- 46.3%Success rate40.1%
- +0.147EPA / dropback-0.100
- -0.119EPA / rush-0.128
- 8.0%Explosive rate7.7%
- +2.41CPOE-0.24
- 41.4%Third-down rate30.3%
- 67.8%Red-zone TD rate65.0%
- 1.96Points / drive1.45
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 5–1 since 1999
MIA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. MIA are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 22/31 | 316 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Howard | 14 | 69 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 8 | 47 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 5 | 31 | 6.2 | 1 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Benny Cunningham | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Gabriel | 5 | 5 | 110 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 7 | 9 | 90 | 0 |
| Allen Robinson | 5 | 6 | 64 | 1 |
| Anthony Miller | 1 | 4 | 29 | 1 |
| Trey Burton | 4 | 4 | 23 | 1 |
| Ben Braunecker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Howard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Osweiler | 28/44 | 380 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 15 | 101 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 13 | 57 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Brock Osweiler | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albert Wilson | 6 | 9 | 155 | 2 |
| Danny Amendola | 8 | 11 | 59 | 0 |
| Nick O'Leary | 4 | 4 | 49 | 1 |
| Kenny Stills | 1 | 2 | 35 | 0 |
| Jakeem Grant | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 4 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
4.60%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.5%
Expected total
41.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.25
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+2.74
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-1.33