2018 · Week 6

Final / OT

Bears

Chicago

QB Mitch Trubisky

28·31

Dolphins

Miami

QB Brock Osweiler

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 89°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

CHI -7.5

Total

40.5

Model margin

-1.3est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapDolphins
  • +0.039EPA / play-0.111
  • 46.3%Success rate40.1%
  • +0.147EPA / dropback-0.100
  • -0.119EPA / rush-0.128
  • 8.0%Explosive rate7.7%
  • +2.41CPOE-0.24
  • 41.4%Third-down rate30.3%
  • 67.8%Red-zone TD rate65.0%
  • 1.96Points / drive1.45
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 5–1 since 1999

MIA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. MIA are 4-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W9MIA @ CHI35–32MIA
2014 · W7MIA @ CHI27–14MIA
2010 · W11CHI @ MIA16–0CHI
2006 · W9MIA @ CHI31–13MIA
2002 · W14CHI @ MIA9–27MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–MIA
MIAQ1 15:00523Punt0–0
CHIQ1 13:1132Punt0–0
MIAQ1 12:17746Touchdown0–7
CHIQ1 8:381038Turnover on downs0–7
MIAQ1 1:57420Punt0–7
CHIQ2 14:481317Punt0–7
MIAQ2 8:41311Punt0–7
CHIQ2 6:18664Turnover0–7
MIAQ2 3:291154Turnover0–7
CHIQ2 0:2213End of half0–7
CHIQ3 15:00443Touchdown7–7
MIAQ3 13:23515Turnover13–7
CHIQ3 11:33112Touchdown14–7
MIAQ3 11:28743Field goal14–10
CHIQ3 7:50375Touchdown21–10
MIAQ3 6:501158Field goal21–13
CHIQ3 0:25777Turnover21–13
MIAQ4 12:13680Touchdown21–21
CHIQ4 9:081269Touchdown28–21
MIAQ4 3:17175Touchdown28–28
CHIQ4 3:01323Turnover28–28
MIAQ4 1:5234Punt28–28
CHIQ4 0:3400End of half28–28
MIAOT984Turnover28–28
CHIOT645Missed field goal28–28
MIAOT428Field goal28–31

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mitchell Trubisky22/3131631

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Howard14694.90
Mitchell Trubisky8475.90
Tarik Cohen5316.21
Taylor Gabriel199.00
Benny Cunningham382.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Taylor Gabriel551100
Tarik Cohen79900
Allen Robinson56641
Anthony Miller14291
Trey Burton44231
Ben Braunecker0100
Jordan Howard0100

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Osweiler28/4438032

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore151016.70
Kenyan Drake13574.40
Brock Osweiler284.00
Albert Wilson1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Albert Wilson691552
Danny Amendola811590
Nick O'Leary44491
Kenny Stills12350
Jakeem Grant34320
Kenyan Drake46210
Frank Gore11180
Mike Gesicki12110
DeVante Parker0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -7.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

4.60%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.5%

Expected total

41.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.25
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.74
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin-1.33