Closing spread
MIA -4
Total
46
Model margin
-1.7est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.054EPA / play-0.039
- 44.6%Success rate41.1%
- +0.111EPA / dropback-0.070
- -0.050EPA / rush-0.004
- 10.1%Explosive rate10.4%
- +0.08CPOE-4.05
- 37.6%Third-down rate41.0%
- 66.9%Red-zone TD rate60.7%
- 2.11Points / drive1.78
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 5–1 since 1999
MIA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. CHI are 2-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 21/30 | 302 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Wilson | 9 | 51 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 9 | 26 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 7 | 8 | 143 | 1 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 5 | 7 | 85 | 1 |
| Trent Sherfield | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Jeff Wilson | 3 | 3 | 21 | 1 |
| Mike Gesicki | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 17/28 | 123 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 15 | 178 | 11.9 | 1 |
| David Montgomery | 14 | 36 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Khalil Herbert | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Chase Claypool | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Darnell Mooney | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnell Mooney | 7 | 8 | 43 | 1 |
| Cole Kmet | 5 | 6 | 41 | 2 |
| Chase Claypool | 2 | 6 | 13 | 0 |
| Dante Pettis | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| N'Keal Harry | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.5%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.42
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.71