2022 · Week 9

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

35·32

Bears

Chicago

QB Justin Fields

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 58°F · wind 17mph

Closing spread

MIA -4

Total

46

Model margin

-1.7est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapBears
  • +0.054EPA / play-0.039
  • 44.6%Success rate41.1%
  • +0.111EPA / dropback-0.070
  • -0.050EPA / rush-0.004
  • 10.1%Explosive rate10.4%
  • +0.08CPOE-4.05
  • 37.6%Third-down rate41.0%
  • 66.9%Red-zone TD rate60.7%
  • 2.11Points / drive1.78
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 5–1 since 1999

MIA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. CHI are 2-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2018 · W6CHI @ MIA28–31MIA
2014 · W7MIA @ CHI27–14MIA
2010 · W11CHI @ MIA16–0CHI
2006 · W9MIA @ CHI31–13MIA
2002 · W14CHI @ MIA9–27MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–CHI
CHIQ1 15:00833Field goal0–3
MIAQ1 11:03743Touchdown7–3
CHIQ1 7:331575Touchdown7–10
MIAQ2 14:52877Touchdown14–10
CHIQ2 10:39415Opp touchdown21–10
CHIQ2 8:251275Touchdown21–17
MIAQ2 1:53769Missed field goal21–17
CHIQ2 0:0700End of half21–17
MIAQ3 15:00475Touchdown28–17
CHIQ3 12:47366Touchdown28–25
MIAQ3 11:201175Touchdown35–25
CHIQ3 6:0242Punt35–25
MIAQ3 4:40524Turnover on downs35–25
CHIQ3 2:021165Touchdown35–32
MIAQ4 11:38821Turnover on downs35–32
CHIQ4 7:50924Punt35–32
MIAQ4 3:043-1Punt35–32
CHIQ4 2:38614Turnover on downs35–32
MIAQ4 1:2200End of half35–32

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa21/3030230

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jeff Wilson9515.70
Raheem Mostert9262.91
Tua Tagovailoa500.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyreek Hill781431
Jaylen Waddle57851
Trent Sherfield33270
Cedrick Wilson Jr.22230
Jeff Wilson33211
Mike Gesicki1230
Raheem Mostert0200
Durham Smythe0200

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Fields17/2812330

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Fields1517811.91
David Montgomery14362.60
Khalil Herbert7233.30
Cole Kmet294.50
Chase Claypool144.00
Darnell Mooney122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darnell Mooney78431
Cole Kmet56412
Chase Claypool26130
Dante Pettis11120
David Montgomery1280
N'Keal Harry1260
Equanimeous St. Brown0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -42.9%4.6%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.1%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

2.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.5%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.42
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.71