2014 · Week 7

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

27·14

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 50°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

CHI -3

Total

47.5

Model margin

+0.7est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapBears
  • +0.019EPA / play-0.055
  • 48.7%Success rate44.2%
  • +0.065EPA / dropback-0.032
  • -0.063EPA / rush-0.104
  • 8.7%Explosive rate7.1%
  • +2.14CPOE-0.14
  • 41.5%Third-down rate38.4%
  • 49.5%Red-zone TD rate67.3%
  • 1.97Points / drive1.62
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 5–1 since 1999

MIA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. CHI are 2-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W9MIA @ CHI35–32MIA
2018 · W6CHI @ MIA28–31MIA
2010 · W11CHI @ MIA16–0CHI
2006 · W9MIA @ CHI31–13MIA
2002 · W14CHI @ MIA9–27MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–CHI
MIAQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
CHIQ1 12:5039Punt0–0
MIAQ1 11:15881Touchdown7–0
CHIQ1 6:51617Punt7–0
MIAQ1 2:331152Missed field goal7–0
CHIQ2 10:13623Turnover7–0
MIAQ2 6:53328Touchdown14–0
CHIQ2 5:2035Punt14–0
MIAQ2 3:43940Punt14–0
CHIQ3 15:001280Touchdown14–7
MIAQ3 7:591383Touchdown21–7
CHIQ3 0:3146Turnover21–7
MIAQ4 14:2432Field goal24–7
CHIQ4 13:32210Turnover24–7
MIAQ4 13:13726Missed field goal24–7
CHIQ4 9:43734Touchdown24–14
MIAQ4 7:381175Field goal27–14
CHIQ4 2:131040Turnover on downs27–14
MIAQ4 0:5700End of half27–14

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill25/3227720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Miller18613.41
Ryan Tannehill6488.00
Daniel Thomas7253.60
Mike Wallace144.00
Damien Williams1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Charles Clay45581
Mike Wallace58461
Jarvis Landry45460
Brian Hartline33350
Dion Sims22330
Daniel Thomas33250
Lamar Miller23220
Damien Williams22120

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler21/3419011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte12494.11
Jay Cutler231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Matt Forte67601
Martellus Bennett58580
Brandon Marshall610480
Dante Rosario22150
Alshon Jeffery2790

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

7.42%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.8%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.84
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.65