Closing spread
CHI -3
Total
47.5
Model margin
+0.7est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.019EPA / play-0.055
- 48.7%Success rate44.2%
- +0.065EPA / dropback-0.032
- -0.063EPA / rush-0.104
- 8.7%Explosive rate7.1%
- +2.14CPOE-0.14
- 41.5%Third-down rate38.4%
- 49.5%Red-zone TD rate67.3%
- 1.97Points / drive1.62
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 5–1 since 1999
MIA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. CHI are 2-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 25/32 | 277 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 18 | 61 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 6 | 48 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 7 | 25 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Clay | 4 | 5 | 58 | 1 |
| Mike Wallace | 5 | 8 | 46 | 1 |
| Jarvis Landry | 4 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| Brian Hartline | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Dion Sims | 2 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 21/34 | 190 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 12 | 49 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Jay Cutler | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 6 | 7 | 60 | 1 |
| Martellus Bennett | 5 | 8 | 58 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 6 | 10 | 48 | 0 |
| Dante Rosario | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 2 | 7 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
7.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.8%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.84
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.65