Closing spread
NO -6.5
Total
45
Model margin
+0.3est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.039EPA / play-0.042
- 46.2%Success rate44.3%
- +0.121EPA / dropback+0.055
- -0.117EPA / rush-0.191
- 8.0%Explosive rate7.6%
- +5.83CPOE+0.88
- 48.8%Third-down rate39.8%
- 58.2%Red-zone TD rate55.0%
- 1.88Points / drive1.45
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 50.3 points. CIN are 5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 24/29 | 313 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ivory | 15 | 117 | 7.8 | 2 |
| Reggie Bush | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Julius Jones | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Meachem | 3 | 3 | 106 | 1 |
| Jimmy Graham | 3 | 3 | 72 | 0 |
| Marques Colston | 3 | 4 | 65 | 1 |
| Lance Moore | 6 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| Jeremy Shockey | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Julius Jones | 3 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Devery Henderson | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| David Thomas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 23/33 | 249 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 19 | 49 | 2.6 | 2 |
| Bernard Scott | 6 | 43 | 7.2 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Johnson | 5 | 10 | 96 | 0 |
| Terrell Owens | 6 | 9 | 47 | 1 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 3 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Jordan Shipley | 4 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Cedric Benson | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.89%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.0%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.15
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.34