2010 · Week 13

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

34·30

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Carson Palmer

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 32°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

NO -6.5

Total

45

Model margin

+0.3est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapBengals
  • +0.039EPA / play-0.042
  • 46.2%Success rate44.3%
  • +0.121EPA / dropback+0.055
  • -0.117EPA / rush-0.191
  • 8.0%Explosive rate7.6%
  • +5.83CPOE+0.88
  • 48.8%Third-down rate39.8%
  • 58.2%Red-zone TD rate55.0%
  • 1.88Points / drive1.45
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 4–2 since 1999

Meetings average 50.3 points. CIN are 5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W6CIN @ NO30–26CIN
2018 · W10NO @ CIN51–14NO
2014 · W11CIN @ NO27–10CIN
2006 · W11CIN @ NO31–16CIN
2002 · W16NO @ CIN13–20CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–CIN
CINQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
NOQ1 13:05760Field goal3–0
CINQ1 8:4434Punt3–0
NOQ1 7:2248Punt3–0
CINQ1 5:111461Field goal3–3
NOQ2 13:03368Touchdown10–3
CINQ2 12:0245Field goal10–6
NOQ2 9:4137Punt10–6
CINQ2 8:00960Turnover on downs10–6
NOQ2 3:2811101Field goal13–6
CINQ2 0:132-12End of half13–6
NOQ3 15:001181Touchdown20–6
CINQ3 9:061070Touchdown20–12
NOQ3 3:543-6Turnover20–12
CINQ3 2:14746Touchdown20–19
NOQ4 13:38369Touchdown27–19
CINQ4 12:13955Touchdown27–27
NOQ4 8:083-16Punt27–27
CINQ4 6:03415Field goal27–30
NOQ4 4:25764Touchdown34–30
CINQ4 0:312-2End of half34–30

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees24/2931321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Ivory151177.82
Reggie Bush5265.20
Julius Jones231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robert Meachem331061
Jimmy Graham33720
Marques Colston34651
Lance Moore67360
Jeremy Shockey23280
Julius Jones3460
Devery Henderson1100
Reggie Bush3300
David Thomas0100

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer23/3324910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cedric Benson19492.62
Bernard Scott6437.20
Brian Leonard144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chad Johnson510960
Terrell Owens69471
Jermaine Gresham34430
Jordan Shipley44250
Brian Leonard34240
Cedric Benson22140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -6.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

2.89%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.0%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.15
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.34