2014 · Week 11

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

27·10

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -8.5

Total

51

Model margin

+2.2est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapSaints
  • -0.019EPA / play+0.067
  • 42.0%Success rate47.9%
  • -0.017EPA / dropback+0.126
  • -0.020EPA / rush-0.043
  • 8.5%Explosive rate8.7%
  • +0.60CPOE+3.60
  • 39.7%Third-down rate48.2%
  • 53.0%Red-zone TD rate62.9%
  • 1.86Points / drive2.11
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 4–2 since 1999

Meetings average 50.3 points. NO are 1-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W6CIN @ NO30–26CIN
2018 · W10NO @ CIN51–14NO
2010 · W13NO @ CIN34–30NO
2006 · W11CIN @ NO31–16CIN
2002 · W16NO @ CIN13–20CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–NO
NOQ1 15:001452Field goal0–3
CINQ1 8:531277Touchdown7–3
NOQ1 3:141775Turnover on downs7–3
CINQ2 10:171489Field goal10–3
NOQ2 2:52629Punt10–3
CINQ2 0:57260Field goal13–3
CINQ3 15:00517Punt13–3
NOQ3 13:13619Punt13–3
CINQ3 9:49848Touchdown20–3
NOQ3 6:031375Touchdown20–10
CINQ4 14:56890Touchdown27–10
NOQ4 11:29935Punt27–10
CINQ4 7:40927Punt27–10
NOQ4 3:21645Turnover27–10
CINQ4 1:5400End of half27–10

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton16/2222030

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jeremy Hill271525.60
Cedric Peerman22110.50
Andy Dalton5122.40
Rex Burkhead210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green681271
Rex Burkhead33360
Mohamed Sanu36230
Jermaine Gresham23132
Jeremy Hill11130
James Wright1180

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees33/4125510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram23672.90
Brandin Cooks155.00
Drew Brees133.00
Travaris Cadet100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marques Colston48560
Brandin Cooks57500
Kenny Stills44321
Travaris Cadet45310
Mark Ingram77300
Jimmy Graham33290
Brian Leonard11150
Joseph Morgan1170
Josh Hill0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +8.52.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

1.19%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.0%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.05
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+2.20