Closing spread
NO -8.5
Total
51
Model margin
+2.2est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.019EPA / play+0.067
- 42.0%Success rate47.9%
- -0.017EPA / dropback+0.126
- -0.020EPA / rush-0.043
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.7%
- +0.60CPOE+3.60
- 39.7%Third-down rate48.2%
- 53.0%Red-zone TD rate62.9%
- 1.86Points / drive2.11
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 50.3 points. NO are 1-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 16/22 | 220 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Hill | 27 | 152 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Cedric Peerman | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 6 | 8 | 127 | 1 |
| Rex Burkhead | 3 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 3 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 2 | 3 | 13 | 2 |
| Jeremy Hill | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| James Wright | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 33/41 | 255 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 23 | 67 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Travaris Cadet | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marques Colston | 4 | 8 | 56 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 5 | 7 | 50 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 4 | 4 | 32 | 1 |
| Travaris Cadet | 4 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 7 | 7 | 30 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Joseph Morgan | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
1.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.0%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.05
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+2.20