2018 · Week 10

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

51·14

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 39°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

NO -5.5

Total

53

Model margin

-0.8est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapBengals
  • +0.156EPA / play+0.013
  • 49.9%Success rate43.6%
  • +0.284EPA / dropback+0.074
  • -0.011EPA / rush-0.105
  • 10.2%Explosive rate10.1%
  • +5.42CPOE-3.54
  • 46.3%Third-down rate36.9%
  • 70.6%Red-zone TD rate72.1%
  • 2.94Points / drive1.95
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 4–2 since 1999

Meetings average 50.3 points. CIN are 5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W6CIN @ NO30–26CIN
2014 · W11CIN @ NO27–10CIN
2010 · W13NO @ CIN34–30NO
2006 · W11CIN @ NO31–16CIN
2002 · W16NO @ CIN13–20CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–CIN
NOQ1 15:001580Touchdown7–0
CINQ1 6:30875Touchdown7–7
NOQ1 1:56675Touchdown14–7
CINQ2 13:33426Punt14–7
NOQ2 10:281079Touchdown21–7
CINQ2 5:343-2Punt21–7
NOQ2 4:02960Touchdown28–7
CINQ2 1:22443Turnover34–7
NOQ2 0:08117Touchdown35–7
CINQ2 0:0200End of half35–7
CINQ3 15:0033Punt35–7
NOQ3 13:12761Field goal38–7
CINQ3 9:04638Turnover on downs38–7
NOQ3 6:21862Touchdown45–7
CINQ3 2:253-7Punt45–7
NOQ3 1:33835Field goal48–7
CINQ4 10:41528Turnover48–7
NOQ4 8:5234Field goal51–7
CINQ4 7:17680Touchdown51–14
NOQ4 4:42539End of half51–14

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees22/2526530
Teddy Bridgewater0/1000
Taysom Hill0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram131048.00
Alvin Kamara12564.72
Dwayne Washington11474.30
Taysom Hill4246.00
Drew Brees231.51
Teddy Bridgewater3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Thomas88702
Mark Ingram33581
Alvin Kamara45460
Keith Kirkwood22450
Dan Arnold23250
Austin Carr22200
Benjamin Watson1210
Taysom Hill0100

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton12/2015312
Jeff Driskel2/34500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon11615.50
Jeff Driskel23517.51
Andy Dalton188.00
Giovani Bernard263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Boyd34650
John Ross26391
Giovani Bernard23300
Joe Mixon22240
C.J. Uzomah34230
Cody Core22170
Auden Tate0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.8%4.3%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

1.89%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.9%

Expected total

47.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.11
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin-0.81