Closing spread
NO -5.5
Total
53
Model margin
-0.8est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.156EPA / play+0.013
- 49.9%Success rate43.6%
- +0.284EPA / dropback+0.074
- -0.011EPA / rush-0.105
- 10.2%Explosive rate10.1%
- +5.42CPOE-3.54
- 46.3%Third-down rate36.9%
- 70.6%Red-zone TD rate72.1%
- 2.94Points / drive1.95
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 50.3 points. CIN are 5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 22/25 | 265 | 3 | 0 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 13 | 104 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 12 | 56 | 4.7 | 2 |
| Dwayne Washington | 11 | 47 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 1 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Thomas | 8 | 8 | 70 | 2 |
| Mark Ingram | 3 | 3 | 58 | 1 |
| Alvin Kamara | 4 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| Keith Kirkwood | 2 | 2 | 45 | 0 |
| Dan Arnold | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Austin Carr | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 12/20 | 153 | 1 | 2 |
| Jeff Driskel | 2/3 | 45 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 11 | 61 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Jeff Driskel | 2 | 35 | 17.5 | 1 |
| Andy Dalton | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Boyd | 3 | 4 | 65 | 0 |
| John Ross | 2 | 6 | 39 | 1 |
| Giovani Bernard | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Cody Core | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Auden Tate | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
1.89%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.9%
Expected total
47.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.11
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin-0.81