Closing spread
NO -3.5
Total
51.5
Model margin
+4.3est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.044EPA / play+0.072
- 45.3%Success rate44.8%
- +0.138EPA / dropback+0.157
- -0.085EPA / rush-0.049
- 9.2%Explosive rate9.5%
- +5.38CPOE+2.07
- 36.8%Third-down rate45.7%
- 61.2%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
- 1.98Points / drive1.91
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 50.3 points. NO are 1-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 14/22 | 275 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 27 | 111 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Chad Johnson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 37/52 | 510 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bush | 13 | 51 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Deuce McAllister | 10 | 40 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.6%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.75
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.31