Closing spread
NO -3.5
Total
51.5
Model margin
+4.3est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.044EPA / play+0.072
- 45.3%Success rate44.8%
- +0.138EPA / dropback+0.157
- -0.085EPA / rush-0.049
- 9.2%Explosive rate9.5%
- +5.38CPOE+2.07
- 36.8%Third-down rate45.7%
- 61.2%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
- 1.98Points / drive1.91
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 50.3 points. NO are 1-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CIN–NO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 67 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| NO | Q1 13:08 | 5 | 23 | Punt | 7–0 |
| CIN | Q1 9:56 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 7–0 |
| NO | Q1 8:31 | 1 | 72 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| CIN | Q1 8:20 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–7 |
| NO | Q1 7:20 | 8 | 35 | Punt | 7–7 |
| CIN | Q1 2:56 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–7 |
| NO | Q1 0:39 | 5 | 59 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| CIN | Q2 13:55 | 11 | 76 | Field goal | 10–7 |
| NO | Q2 7:30 | 6 | 36 | Turnover | 10–7 |
| CIN | Q2 4:30 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 10–7 |
| NO | Q2 3:28 | 12 | 69 | Turnover | 10–7 |
| CIN | Q2 0:13 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–7 |
| NO | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 41 | Punt | 10–7 |
| CIN | Q3 12:10 | 5 | 36 | Punt | 10–7 |
| NO | Q3 9:57 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 10–7 |
| CIN | Q3 8:19 | 6 | 33 | Turnover | 10–7 |
| NO | Q3 5:12 | 11 | 69 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| CIN | Q4 13:39 | 6 | 78 | Touchdown | 17–10 |
| NO | Q4 10:23 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 17–10 |
| CIN | Q4 8:45 | 3 | 74 | Touchdown | 24–10 |
| NO | Q4 7:37 | 4 | 25 | Opp touchdown | 31–10 |
| NO | Q4 6:14 | 7 | 80 | Touchdown | 31–16 |
| CIN | Q4 4:21 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 31–16 |
| NO | Q4 1:52 | 7 | 74 | End of half | 31–16 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 14/22 | 275 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 27 | 111 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Chad Johnson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 37/52 | 510 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bush | 13 | 51 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Deuce McAllister | 10 | 40 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.6%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.75
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.31