2022 · Week 6

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

30·26

Saints

New Orleans

QB Andy Dalton

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

CIN -3

Total

42.5

Model margin

+0.1est.

NO perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapSaints
  • +0.081EPA / play-0.037
  • 47.8%Success rate45.5%
  • +0.153EPA / dropback+0.018
  • -0.064EPA / rush-0.109
  • 7.4%Explosive rate8.6%
  • +2.74CPOE+1.61
  • 47.3%Third-down rate40.9%
  • 72.1%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
  • 2.27Points / drive1.59
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 4–2 since 1999

Meetings average 50.3 points. NO are 1-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2018 · W10NO @ CIN51–14NO
2014 · W11CIN @ NO27–10CIN
2010 · W13NO @ CIN34–30NO
2006 · W11CIN @ NO31–16CIN
2002 · W16NO @ CIN13–20CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–NO
CINQ1 15:003-1Punt0–0
NOQ1 12:5431Punt0–0
NOQ1 11:58332Touchdown0–7
CINQ1 10:33520Punt0–7
NOQ1 8:20414Punt0–7
CINQ1 6:401361Touchdown7–7
NOQ1 0:45575Touchdown7–14
CINQ2 13:3939Punt7–14
NOQ2 12:39559Field goal7–17
CINQ2 10:281075Touchdown14–17
NOQ2 5:441363Field goal14–20
CINQ2 0:0100End of half14–20
NOQ3 15:001461Field goal14–23
CINQ3 7:12774Touchdown21–23
NOQ3 3:301366Field goal21–26
CINQ4 11:071351Field goal24–26
NOQ4 3:4236Punt30–26
CINQ4 2:10160Touchdown30–26
NOQ4 1:57922Turnover on downs30–26
CINQ4 0:2700End of half30–26

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow28/3730030

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon8455.60
Joe Burrow4256.31
Samaje Perine252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ja'Marr Chase7101322
Tyler Boyd66660
Tee Higgins69470
Joe Mixon46231
Hayden Hurst33210
Samaje Perine22110

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton17/3216210
Taysom Hill2/41600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Kamara19995.20
Mark Ingram9465.10
Rashid Shaheed14444.01
Taysom Hill5397.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tre'Quan Smith33431
Juwan Johnson46410
Marquez Callaway37360
Alvin Kamara69250
Keith Kirkwood11140
Mark Ingram12110
Adam Trautman1180
Kevin White0100
Rashid Shaheed0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

7.34%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.3%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.60
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.10