Closing spread
CIN -3
Total
42.5
Model margin
+0.1est.
NO perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.081EPA / play-0.037
- 47.8%Success rate45.5%
- +0.153EPA / dropback+0.018
- -0.064EPA / rush-0.109
- 7.4%Explosive rate8.6%
- +2.74CPOE+1.61
- 47.3%Third-down rate40.9%
- 72.1%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
- 2.27Points / drive1.59
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 50.3 points. NO are 1-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 28/37 | 300 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 8 | 45 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Joe Burrow | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 1 |
| Samaje Perine | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 7 | 10 | 132 | 2 |
| Tyler Boyd | 6 | 6 | 66 | 0 |
| Tee Higgins | 6 | 9 | 47 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 4 | 6 | 23 | 1 |
| Hayden Hurst | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 17/32 | 162 | 1 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 2/4 | 16 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 19 | 99 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 9 | 46 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 1 | 44 | 44.0 | 1 |
| Taysom Hill | 5 | 39 | 7.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre'Quan Smith | 3 | 3 | 43 | 1 |
| Juwan Johnson | 4 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Marquez Callaway | 3 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 6 | 9 | 25 | 0 |
| Keith Kirkwood | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Kevin White | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
7.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.3%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.60
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.10