Closing spread
NO -7
Total
49
Model margin
+2.6est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
4.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.006EPA / play-0.063
- 39.0%Success rate43.4%
- +0.038EPA / dropback-0.085
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.027
- 8.2%Explosive rate6.3%
- 40.9%Third-down rate39.3%
- 59.3%Red-zone TD rate50.2%
- 1.94Points / drive1.04
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.005EPA / play allowed+0.080
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 50.3 points. CIN are 5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 16/38 | 203 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 15 | 26 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Donte' Stallworth | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donte' Stallworth | 6 | 9 | 111 | 1 |
| Joe Horn | 6 | 13 | 64 | 0 |
| Boo Williams | 1 | 7 | 9 | 0 |
| Michael L. Lewis | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Jake Reed | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Deuce McAllister | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 20/40 | 190 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 18 | 126 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Nicolas Luchey | 12 | 59 | 4.9 | 2 |
| Brandon Bennett | 7 | 58 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Warrick | 7 | 11 | 71 | 1 |
| Chad Johnson | 4 | 9 | 47 | 0 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 1 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Ron Dugans | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Danny Farmer | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Nicolas Luchey | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Matt Schobel | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
3.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.1%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.06
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.62