NFL Intelligence

2002 · Week 16

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Aaron Brooks

13·20

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Jon Kitna

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · grass · 44°F · wind 23mph

Closing spread

NO -7

Total

Model margin

+2.6est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

4.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

Bengals
Saints

How each play moved the game.

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapBengals

-0.006EPA / play-0.063
39.0%Success rate43.4%
+0.038EPA / dropback-0.085
-0.078EPA / rush-0.027
8.2%Explosive rate6.3%
40.9%Third-down rate39.3%
59.3%Red-zone TD rate50.2%
1.94Points / drive1.04
2.7%Turnover rate2.9%
-0.005EPA / play allowed+0.080

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 4–2 since 1999

Meetings average 50.3 points. CIN are 5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
Season	Matchup	Score	Winner
2022 · W6	CIN @ NO	30–26	CIN
2018 · W10	NO @ CIN	51–14	NO
2014 · W11	CIN @ NO	27–10	CIN
2010 · W13	NO @ CIN	34–30	NO
2006 · W11	CIN @ NO	31–16	CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
Ball	Start	Plays	Yards	Result	NO–CIN
NO	Q1 15:00	10	42	Field goal	3–0
CIN	Q1 9:46	5	44	Touchdown	3–7
NO	Q1 8:15	5	71	Touchdown	10–7
CIN	Q1 6:19	3	7	Punt	10–7
NO	Q1 4:59	3	31	Turnover	10–7
CIN	Q1 3:42	1	26	Turnover	10–7
NO	Q1 3:31	6	14	Turnover	10–7
CIN	Q1 0:02	3	-9	Punt	10–7
NO	Q2 14:07	3	-9	Punt	10–7
CIN	Q2 12:30	4	11	Punt	10–7
NO	Q2 10:56	3	9	Punt	10–7
CIN	Q2 9:08	3	5	Punt	10–7
NO	Q2 7:42	3	4	Punt	10–7
CIN	Q2 6:46	4	6	Turnover	10–7
NO	Q2 5:23	3	1	Missed field goal	10–7
CIN	Q2 4:33	3	11	Turnover	10–7
NO	Q2 3:36	6	23	Field goal	13–7
CIN	Q2 1:13	7	56	End of half	13–7
CIN	Q3 15:00	10	57	Punt	13–7
NO	Q3 9:38	5	18	Punt	13–7
CIN	Q3 7:21	12	66	Turnover	13–7
NO	Q3 1:49	4	4	Turnover on downs	13–7
CIN	Q3 1:17	14	64	Touchdown	13–13
NO	Q4 10:42	3	5	Punt	13–13
CIN	Q4 9:43	3	8	Punt	13–13
NO	Q4 8:24	3	-3	Punt	13–13
CIN	Q4 7:33	12	74	Touchdown	13–20
NO	Q4 1:46	4	0	Turnover on downs	13–20
CIN	Q4 1:14	0	0	End of half	13–20

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT
Aaron Brooks	16/38	203	1	0

Rushing

Player	Car	Yds	Avg
Deuce McAllister	15	26	1.7
Donte' Stallworth	1	4	4.0
Aaron Brooks	4	3	0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD
Donte' Stallworth	6	9	111	1
Joe Horn	6	13	64	0
Boo Williams	1	7	9	0
Michael L. Lewis	1	3	8	0
Jake Reed	1	2	4	0
Deuce McAllister	0	2	0	0

Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT
Jon Kitna	20/40	190	1	2

Rushing

Player	Car	Yds	Avg	TD
Corey Dillon	18	126	7.0	0
Nicolas Luchey	12	59	4.9	2
Brandon Bennett	7	58	8.3	0
Jon Kitna	2	-3	-1.5	0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD
Peter Warrick	7	11	71	1
Chad Johnson	4	9	47	0
T.J. Houshmandzadeh	2	3	20	0
Corey Dillon	1	4	16	0
Ron Dugans	1	2	15	0
Danny Farmer	1	1	7	0
Brandon Bennett	1	2	6	0
Nicolas Luchey	1	2	6	0
Matt Schobel	1	3	2	0

Where this game is likely to land

Model
Smooth (normal)
Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

3.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.1%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.06
Home-field advantage+2.56
Quarterback adjustment0.00
Rest differential0.00
Expected margin+2.62