2012 · Postseason
Week 17
Week 17: 16 games played. Giants produced the widest margin at 35 points; the tightest finish was Bears at Lions, decided by 2.
Briefing7
Ravens start Tyrod Taylor rather than Joe Flacco, which the model treats as worth about 9.5 points against them.
Browns start Thaddeus Lewis rather than Brandon Weeden, which the model treats as worth about 7.2 points against them.
Chiefs start Brady Quinn rather than Matt Cassel, which the model treats as worth about 6.2 points against them.
Cardinals start Brian Hoyer rather than John Skelton, which the model treats as worth about 1.6 points for them.
Patriots lead the league in offensive EPA per play at +0.176, 0.039 clear of second.
Bears have been the most efficient defence, allowing -0.142 EPA per play.
The model's widest disagreement with the market is Cardinals at 49ers, where it rates Cardinals about 11.9 points better than the line. Worth understanding, not worth backing — the model's picks have gone 49.93% against the spread historically, below the 52.38% needed to break even.
What this season can and cannot show1
- Next Gen Stats begin in 2016.
Slate
