Closing spread
CHI -2.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+3.5est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.077EPA / play-0.001
- 45.2%Success rate42.4%
- +0.164EPA / dropback+0.096
- -0.072EPA / rush-0.173
- 9.9%Explosive rate8.3%
- +4.85CPOE+3.30
- 42.7%Third-down rate37.6%
- 64.4%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
- 1.95Points / drive1.82
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. PIT are 1-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 20/30 | 159 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 16 | 87 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Jay Cutler | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Michael Bush | 8 | 9 | 1.1 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 5 | 8 | 52 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 7 | 8 | 51 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 4 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Earl Bennett | 2 | 3 | 22 | 1 |
| Martellus Bennett | 2 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| Michael Bush | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Steve Maneri | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 26/41 | 406 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Dwyer | 12 | 39 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 7 | 34 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 9 | 13 | 196 | 2 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 3 | 4 | 52 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 2 | 3 | 51 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 4 | 8 | 39 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Jonathan Dwyer | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| David Paulson | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Will Johnson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Markus Wheaton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
1.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.4%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.09
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.50