2013 · Week 3

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

40·23

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 56°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

CHI -2.5

Total

40.5

Model margin

+3.5est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapSteelers
  • +0.077EPA / play-0.001
  • 45.2%Success rate42.4%
  • +0.164EPA / dropback+0.096
  • -0.072EPA / rush-0.173
  • 9.9%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +4.85CPOE+3.30
  • 42.7%Third-down rate37.6%
  • 64.4%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
  • 1.95Points / drive1.82
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 4–2 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. PIT are 1-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W12PIT @ CHI28–31CHI
2021 · W9CHI @ PIT27–29PIT
2017 · W3PIT @ CHI17–23CHI
2009 · W2PIT @ CHI14–17CHI
2005 · W14CHI @ PIT9–21PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–PIT
CHIQ1 15:001251Field goal3–0
PITQ1 8:0238Turnover3–0
CHIQ1 6:42417Touchdown10–0
PITQ1 5:0531Punt10–0
CHIQ1 3:57656Touchdown17–0
PITQ1 2:01871Field goal17–3
CHIQ2 13:36516Punt17–3
PITQ2 10:3034Opp touchdown24–3
PITQ2 8:57660Touchdown24–10
CHIQ2 6:2735Punt24–10
PITQ2 4:39535Punt24–10
CHIQ2 1:4834Punt24–10
PITQ3 15:0028Turnover24–10
CHIQ3 14:17519Field goal27–10
PITQ3 10:54962Field goal27–13
CHIQ3 5:3862Punt27–13
PITQ3 3:20369Touchdown27–20
CHIQ3 1:5039Punt27–20
PITQ3 0:091052Field goal27–23
CHIQ4 10:38974Touchdown34–23
PITQ4 5:48418Opp touchdown40–23
PITQ4 3:57971Turnover on downs40–23
CHIQ4 2:2037Punt40–23
PITQ4 1:3910Turnover40–23
CHIQ4 1:3000End of half40–23

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler20/3015910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte16875.41
Jay Cutler4112.80
Michael Bush891.11

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Marshall58520
Alshon Jeffery78510
Matt Forte44240
Earl Bennett23221
Martellus Bennett25100
Michael Bush0100
Steve Maneri0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger26/4140622

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Dwyer12393.30
Felix Jones7344.90
Ben Roethlisberger273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown9131962
Jerricho Cotchery34520
David Johnson23510
Emmanuel Sanders48390
Heath Miller34350
Felix Jones22130
Jonathan Dwyer1390
David Paulson1260
Will Johnson1150
Markus Wheaton0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

1.98%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.4%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.09
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+3.50