2017 · Week 3

Final / OT

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

17·23

Bears

Chicago

QB Mike Glennon

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 89°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

PIT -7

Total

43.5

Model margin

-0.4est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

4.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapBears
  • +0.076EPA / play-0.112
  • 46.0%Success rate38.5%
  • +0.177EPA / dropback-0.099
  • -0.085EPA / rush-0.130
  • 9.4%Explosive rate7.7%
  • +3.69CPOE-3.10
  • 43.8%Third-down rate34.8%
  • 57.6%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
  • 2.22Points / drive1.22
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 4–2 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. CHI are 4-1-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W12PIT @ CHI28–31CHI
2021 · W9CHI @ PIT27–29PIT
2013 · W3CHI @ PIT40–23CHI
2009 · W2PIT @ CHI14–17CHI
2005 · W14CHI @ PIT9–21PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–CHI
PITQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
CHIQ1 13:523-1Punt0–0
CHIQ1 12:33629Touchdown0–7
PITQ1 9:0973Turnover0–7
CHIQ1 6:15521Missed field goal0–7
PITQ1 2:32414Punt0–7
CHIQ1 1:0677Punt0–7
PITQ2 12:531482Touchdown7–7
CHIQ2 5:421081Touchdown7–14
PITQ2 0:43562Missed field goal7–14
CHIQ2 0:0000Field goal7–17
CHIQ3 15:003-2Punt7–17
PITQ3 13:35728Punt7–17
CHIQ3 10:1321Turnover7–17
PITQ3 9:25716Touchdown14–17
CHIQ3 6:431143Punt14–17
PITQ4 14:51744Punt14–17
CHIQ4 10:1533Turnover14–17
PITQ4 8:5737Field goal17–17
CHIQ4 8:03313Punt17–17
PITQ4 5:12414Punt17–17
CHIQ4 3:26837Punt17–17
PITQ4 0:5239End of half17–17
CHIOT474Touchdown17–23

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger22/3923510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell15614.11
Ben Roethlisberger166.00
Terrell Watson133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown10141101
JuJu Smith-Schuster26390
Le'Veon Bell67370
Martavis Bryant28300
Jesse James24190

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Glennon15/2210111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Howard231406.12
Tarik Cohen12786.50
Mike Glennon341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordan Howard55260
Tarik Cohen44240
Benny Cunningham33230
Zach Miller13170
Deonte Thompson1290
Adam Shaheen1121
Markus Wheaton0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.7%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

4.46%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.1%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.62
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.52
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.36