Closing spread
PIT -7
Total
43.5
Model margin
-0.4est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
4.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.076EPA / play-0.112
- 46.0%Success rate38.5%
- +0.177EPA / dropback-0.099
- -0.085EPA / rush-0.130
- 9.4%Explosive rate7.7%
- +3.69CPOE-3.10
- 43.8%Third-down rate34.8%
- 57.6%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
- 2.22Points / drive1.22
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. CHI are 4-1-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 22/39 | 235 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 15 | 61 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Terrell Watson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 10 | 14 | 110 | 1 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 2 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 6 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| Martavis Bryant | 2 | 8 | 30 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Glennon | 15/22 | 101 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Howard | 23 | 140 | 6.1 | 2 |
| Tarik Cohen | 12 | 78 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Mike Glennon | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Howard | 5 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 4 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Benny Cunningham | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Deonte Thompson | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Adam Shaheen | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Markus Wheaton | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
4.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.1%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.62
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+0.52
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.36