Closing spread
PIT -1
Total
37.5
Model margin
+0.3est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Bears
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.043EPA / play-0.089
- 44.8%Success rate39.6%
- +0.124EPA / dropback-0.064
- -0.083EPA / rush-0.135
- 10.2%Explosive rate8.4%
- +4.22CPOE+0.30
- 40.3%Third-down rate37.3%
- 55.0%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
- 1.83Points / drive1.57
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. CHI are 4-1-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 23/35 | 221 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 14 | 47 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 3 | 39 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santonio Holmes | 5 | 14 | 83 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 6 | 7 | 57 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Matt Spaeth | 2 | 2 | 10 | 1 |
| Willie Parker | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 27/38 | 236 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 13 | 29 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Knox | 6 | 9 | 70 | 1 |
| Greg Olsen | 3 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Kellen Davis | 5 | 6 | 38 | 1 |
| Matt Forte | 5 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Earl Bennett | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 4 | 7 | 21 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.0%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.90
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+0.35