2009 · Week 2

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

14·17

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 70°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

PIT -1

Total

37.5

Model margin

+0.3est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapBears
  • +0.043EPA / play-0.089
  • 44.8%Success rate39.6%
  • +0.124EPA / dropback-0.064
  • -0.083EPA / rush-0.135
  • 10.2%Explosive rate8.4%
  • +4.22CPOE+0.30
  • 40.3%Third-down rate37.3%
  • 55.0%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
  • 1.83Points / drive1.57
  • 2.2%Turnover rate3.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 4–2 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. CHI are 4-1-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W12PIT @ CHI28–31CHI
2021 · W9CHI @ PIT27–29PIT
2017 · W3PIT @ CHI17–23CHI
2013 · W3CHI @ PIT40–23CHI
2005 · W14CHI @ PIT9–21PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–CHI
CHIQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
PITQ1 13:011392Touchdown7–0
CHIQ1 4:5837Punt7–0
PITQ1 3:23852Turnover7–0
CHIQ2 13:24842Punt7–0
PITQ2 9:39717Punt7–0
CHIQ2 6:161577Touchdown7–7
PITQ2 0:1900End of half7–7
PITQ3 15:0030Punt7–7
CHIQ3 14:0432Punt7–7
PITQ3 12:59610Punt7–7
CHIQ3 10:25627Punt7–7
PITQ3 6:56454Touchdown14–7
CHIQ3 5:26514Punt14–7
PITQ3 2:10943Missed field goal14–7
CHIQ4 11:37972Touchdown14–14
PITQ4 6:211041Missed field goal14–14
CHIQ4 3:18731Field goal14–17
PITQ4 0:1500Turnover14–17
CHIQ4 0:0900Turnover14–17

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger23/3522111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Willie Parker14473.40
Rashard Mendenhall33913.00
Mewelde Moore2136.50
Ben Roethlisberger362.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Santonio Holmes514830
Hines Ward67570
Heath Miller34270
Mewelde Moore33150
Rashard Mendenhall11130
Mike Wallace23130
Matt Spaeth22101
Willie Parker1130

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler27/3823620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte13292.20
Adrian Peterson3165.30
Jay Cutler2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Johnny Knox69701
Greg Olsen36410
Kellen Davis56381
Matt Forte56330
Earl Bennett22220
Devin Hester47210
Adrian Peterson22110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.0%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.90
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+0.35