Closing spread
CHI -3
Total
46.5
Model margin
+0.8est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.027EPA / play+0.076
- 44.1%Success rate45.7%
- +0.046EPA / dropback+0.122
- -0.001EPA / rush+0.007
- 8.3%Explosive rate10.1%
- +0.58CPOE-3.48
- 40.4%Third-down rate42.0%
- 66.8%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
- 2.11Points / drive2.32
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. CHI are 4-1-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Rudolph | 24/31 | 171 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Gainwell | 10 | 92 | 9.2 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 18 | 68 | 3.8 | 1 |
| DK Metcalf | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Jonnu Smith | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Mason Rudolph | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Austin III | 4 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 6 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| DK Metcalf | 5 | 8 | 22 | 0 |
| Darnell Washington | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Ben Skowronek | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 3 | 3 | 19 | 1 |
| Roman Wilson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | 19/35 | 239 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Monangai | 12 | 48 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Caleb Williams | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 8 | 15 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Luther Burden III | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | 5 | 7 | 64 | 2 |
| Rome Odunze | 3 | 9 | 53 | 0 |
| Colston Loveland | 4 | 5 | 49 | 1 |
| Luther Burden III | 3 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.2%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.25
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.15
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.81