2025 · Week 12

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Mason Rudolph

28·31

Bears

Chicago

QB Caleb Williams

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 51°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

CHI -3

Total

46.5

Model margin

+0.8est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapBears
  • +0.027EPA / play+0.076
  • 44.1%Success rate45.7%
  • +0.046EPA / dropback+0.122
  • -0.001EPA / rush+0.007
  • 8.3%Explosive rate10.1%
  • +0.58CPOE-3.48
  • 40.4%Third-down rate42.0%
  • 66.8%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
  • 2.11Points / drive2.32
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 4–2 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. CHI are 4-1-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W9CHI @ PIT27–29PIT
2017 · W3PIT @ CHI17–23CHI
2013 · W3CHI @ PIT40–23CHI
2009 · W2PIT @ CHI14–17CHI
2005 · W14CHI @ PIT9–21PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–CHI
CHIQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
PITQ1 13:1929Turnover0–0
CHIQ1 12:35950Touchdown0–7
PITQ1 8:281395Touchdown7–7
CHIQ1 0:303-10Opp touchdown14–7
CHIQ2 14:44526Turnover14–7
PITQ2 11:47522Turnover on downs14–7
CHIQ2 8:461170Touchdown14–14
PITQ2 3:56785Touchdown21–14
CHIQ2 1:19935Field goal21–17
PITQ3 15:00611Punt21–17
CHIQ3 11:16575Touchdown21–24
PITQ3 8:2937Punt21–24
CHIQ3 6:2339Punt21–24
PITQ3 5:084-6Turnover21–24
CHIQ3 3:52954Touchdown21–31
PITQ4 14:141872Touchdown28–31
CHIQ4 6:27313Punt28–31
PITQ4 4:37717Punt28–31
CHIQ4 1:5333Punt28–31
PITQ4 1:29733Turnover on downs28–31
CHIQ4 0:1700End of half28–31

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mason Rudolph24/3117111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenny Gainwell10929.20
Jaylen Warren18683.81
DK Metcalf2126.01
Jonnu Smith273.50
Mason Rudolph372.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Austin III45360
Kenny Gainwell66300
DK Metcalf58220
Darnell Washington22220
Jonnu Smith33210
Ben Skowronek11210
Pat Freiermuth33191
Roman Wilson0300

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Caleb Williams19/3523930

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyle Monangai12484.01
Caleb Williams4215.30
D'Andre Swift8151.90
Luther Burden III11515.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Moore57642
Rome Odunze39530
Colston Loveland45491
Luther Burden III35460
D'Andre Swift11140
Olamide Zaccheaus1160
Durham Smythe1140
Cole Kmet1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.3%2.8%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

7.43%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.2%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.25
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.15
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.81