Closing spread
PIT -4
Total
32
Model margin
+4.8est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.138EPA / play+0.057
- 37.0%Success rate43.9%
- -0.147EPA / dropback+0.202
- -0.129EPA / rush-0.067
- 8.0%Explosive rate9.7%
- 28.3%Third-down rate35.7%
- 49.7%Red-zone TD rate63.9%
- 1.08Points / drive1.99
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.0%
- -0.167EPA / play allowed-0.084
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. PIT are 1-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 17/35 | 207 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 14 | 72 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Kyle Orton | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 13/20 | 173 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 17 | 101 | 5.9 | 2 |
| Willie Parker | 21 | 68 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.9%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.27
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.83