Closing spread
PIT -7
Total
40
Model margin
+2.4est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.087EPA / play-0.051
- 41.4%Success rate40.2%
- -0.077EPA / dropback-0.037
- -0.105EPA / rush-0.078
- 7.4%Explosive rate7.1%
- -2.87CPOE-2.66
- 34.7%Third-down rate39.0%
- 52.0%Red-zone TD rate60.3%
- 1.62Points / drive1.65
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. PIT are 1-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 17/29 | 291 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 13 | 63 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Justin Fields | 8 | 45 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Darnell Mooney | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 1 |
| Khalil Herbert | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Kmet | 6 | 8 | 87 | 0 |
| Allen Robinson | 4 | 6 | 68 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 1 | 4 | 50 | 0 |
| Darnell Mooney | 3 | 6 | 41 | 1 |
| Jimmy Graham | 1 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 21/30 | 205 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 22 | 62 | 2.8 | 1 |
| James Washington | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Chase Claypool | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Diontae Johnson | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Benny Snell | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diontae Johnson | 5 | 6 | 56 | 0 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 5 | 6 | 43 | 2 |
| James Washington | 1 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| Chase Claypool | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Kalen Ballage | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Kevin Rader | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
4.72%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.5%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.67
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.38