2021 · Week 9

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Justin Fields

27·29

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 55°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

PIT -7

Total

40

Model margin

+2.4est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

4.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapSteelers
  • -0.087EPA / play-0.051
  • 41.4%Success rate40.2%
  • -0.077EPA / dropback-0.037
  • -0.105EPA / rush-0.078
  • 7.4%Explosive rate7.1%
  • -2.87CPOE-2.66
  • 34.7%Third-down rate39.0%
  • 52.0%Red-zone TD rate60.3%
  • 1.62Points / drive1.65
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 4–2 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. PIT are 1-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W12PIT @ CHI28–31CHI
2017 · W3PIT @ CHI17–23CHI
2013 · W3CHI @ PIT40–23CHI
2009 · W2PIT @ CHI14–17CHI
2005 · W14CHI @ PIT9–21PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–PIT
CHIQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
PITQ1 13:02754Touchdown0–7
CHIQ1 9:42414Punt0–7
PITQ1 7:4068Punt0–7
CHIQ1 4:29530Turnover0–7
PITQ1 2:031031Touchdown0–14
CHIQ2 13:2237Punt0–14
PITQ2 11:49412Punt0–14
CHIQ2 9:12517Punt0–14
PITQ2 6:4439Punt0–14
CHIQ2 4:471151Field goal3–14
PITQ2 0:1500End of half3–14
PITQ3 15:0047Punt3–14
CHIQ3 12:4210104Field goal6–14
PITQ3 7:43975Touchdown6–20
CHIQ3 2:08682Touchdown13–20
PITQ4 14:1749Field goal13–23
CHIQ4 11:5400Punt13–23
PITQ4 11:477-2Punt13–23
CHIQ4 7:5833Touchdown20–23
PITQ4 6:311026Field goal20–26
CHIQ4 2:52775Touchdown27–26
PITQ4 1:46652Field goal27–29
CHIQ4 0:26523Missed field goal27–29

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Fields17/2929111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Montgomery13634.80
Justin Fields8455.60
Darnell Mooney11515.01
Khalil Herbert4133.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cole Kmet68870
Allen Robinson46680
Marquise Goodwin14500
Darnell Mooney36411
Jimmy Graham13280
David Montgomery22170

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger21/3020520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Najee Harris22622.81
James Washington2136.50
Chase Claypool2136.50
Diontae Johnson2115.50
Benny Snell263.00
Ben Roethlisberger200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Diontae Johnson56560
Pat Freiermuth56432
James Washington13420
Chase Claypool35300
Najee Harris33160
Ray-Ray McCloud11120
Kalen Ballage1120
Kevin Rader1110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +74.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

4.72%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.5%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.67
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.38