2014 · Postseason
Week 17
Week 17: 16 games played. Broncos produced the widest margin at 33 points; the tightest finish was Saints at Buccaneers, decided by 3.
Briefing7
Browns start Connor Shaw rather than Brian Hoyer, which the model treats as worth about 1.7 points against them.
Texans start Case Keenum rather than Ryan Fitzpatrick, which the model treats as worth about 9.2 points against them.
Chiefs start Chase Daniel rather than Alex Smith, which the model treats as worth about 11.1 points against them.
Patriots start Jimmy Garoppolo rather than Tom Brady, which the model treats as worth about 13.0 points against them.
Packers lead the league in offensive EPA per play at +0.142, 0.024 clear of second.
Texans have been the most efficient defence, allowing -0.115 EPA per play.
The model's widest disagreement with the market is Raiders at Broncos, where it rates Raiders about 12.1 points better than the line. Worth understanding, not worth backing — the model's picks have gone 49.93% against the spread historically, below the 52.38% needed to break even.
What this season can and cannot show1
- Next Gen Stats begin in 2016.
Slate
