2015 · Postseason
Week 17
Week 17: 16 games played. Seahawks produced the widest margin at 30 points; the tightest finish was Saints at Falcons, decided by 3.
Briefing7
Bengals start A.J. McCarron rather than Andy Dalton, which the model treats as worth about 9.1 points against them.
Ravens start Ryan Mallett rather than Joe Flacco, which the model treats as worth about 2.9 points against them.
Browns start Austin Davis rather than Josh McCown, which the model treats as worth about 11.6 points against them.
Cowboys start Kellen Moore rather than Matt Cassel, which the model treats as worth about 6.2 points for them.
Cardinals lead the league in offensive EPA per play at +0.133, 0.028 clear of second.
Broncos have been the most efficient defence, allowing -0.130 EPA per play.
The model's widest disagreement with the market is Patriots at Dolphins, where it rates Dolphins about 10.3 points better than the line. Worth understanding, not worth backing — the model's picks have gone 49.93% against the spread historically, below the 52.38% needed to break even.
What this season can and cannot show1
- Next Gen Stats begin in 2016.
Slate
