2015 · Week 5

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

31·38

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jameis Winston

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 84°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

TB -1

Total

41

Model margin

+3.2est.

TB perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.051EPA / play+0.008
  • 41.8%Success rate44.4%
  • +0.041EPA / dropback+0.106
  • -0.254EPA / rush-0.141
  • 10.1%Explosive rate9.6%
  • -3.08CPOE-0.02
  • 33.9%Third-down rate41.4%
  • 57.0%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
  • 1.59Points / drive1.77
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 46.5 points. TB are 3-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W16JAX @ TB12–30TB
2019 · W13TB @ JAX28–11TB
2011 · W14TB @ JAX14–41JAX
2007 · W8JAX @ TB24–23JAX
2003 · W13TB @ JAX10–17JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–TB
TBQ1 15:00862Field goal0–3
JAXQ1 10:1630Punt0–3
TBQ1 8:26738Punt0–3
JAXQ1 4:301173Touchdown7–3
TBQ2 14:20658Field goal7–6
JAXQ2 10:393-1Punt7–6
TBQ2 8:59317Touchdown7–13
JAXQ2 7:2636Turnover7–13
TBQ2 5:49641Touchdown7–20
JAXQ2 2:26778Touchdown14–20
TBQ2 0:3623End of half14–20
JAXQ3 15:001150Field goal17–20
TBQ3 10:03510Punt17–20
JAXQ3 6:19749Touchdown24–20
TBQ3 2:57756Field goal24–23
JAXQ3 0:291-17Opp touchdown24–31
JAXQ3 0:153-5Punt24–31
TBQ4 13:27938Touchdown24–38
JAXQ4 8:2636Punt24–38
TBQ4 7:201048Punt24–38
JAXQ4 2:50786Touchdown31–38
TBQ4 1:0500End of half31–38

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles23/3330341

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
T.J. Yeldon11322.90
Blake Bortles12121.00
Bernard Pierce263.00
Toby Gerhart122.00
Corey Grant2-6-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Hurns561161
Allen Robinson79722
Bryan Walters44640
T.J. Yeldon56311
Julius Thomas22200
Marcedes Lewis0400
Toby Gerhart0100

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston13/1920910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Doug Martin241235.12
Charles Sims12514.30
Jameis Winston492.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Charles Sims44850
Mike Evans35410
Doug Martin33351
Brandon Myers22340
Vincent Jackson13140
Donteea Dye0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.7%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.75
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.24