2015 · Week 5
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 84°F · wind 9mph
Closing spread
TB -1
Total
41
Model margin
+3.2est.
TB perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.051EPA / play+0.008
- 41.8%Success rate44.4%
- +0.041EPA / dropback+0.106
- -0.254EPA / rush-0.141
- 10.1%Explosive rate9.6%
- -3.08CPOE-0.02
- 33.9%Third-down rate41.4%
- 57.0%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
- 1.59Points / drive1.77
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 46.5 points. TB are 3-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 23/33 | 303 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Yeldon | 11 | 32 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Blake Bortles | 1 | 21 | 21.0 | 0 |
| Bernard Pierce | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Corey Grant | 2 | -6 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Hurns | 5 | 6 | 116 | 1 |
| Allen Robinson | 7 | 9 | 72 | 2 |
| Bryan Walters | 4 | 4 | 64 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 5 | 6 | 31 | 1 |
| Julius Thomas | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 13/19 | 209 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Martin | 24 | 123 | 5.1 | 2 |
| Charles Sims | 12 | 51 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Sims | 4 | 4 | 85 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 3 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Doug Martin | 3 | 3 | 35 | 1 |
| Brandon Myers | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 |
| Vincent Jackson | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Donteea Dye | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.7%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.75
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.24