2019 · Week 13

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jameis Winston

28·11

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Nick Foles

TIAA Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 77°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

TB -3

Total

46.5

Model margin

-1.7est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapJaguars
  • +0.000EPA / play-0.053
  • 43.6%Success rate39.3%
  • +0.084EPA / dropback-0.010
  • -0.168EPA / rush-0.145
  • 10.0%Explosive rate8.4%
  • +0.42CPOE-3.03
  • 42.2%Third-down rate35.4%
  • 71.0%Red-zone TD rate47.6%
  • 1.86Points / drive1.61
  • 3.6%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 46.5 points. JAX are 3-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W16JAX @ TB12–30TB
2015 · W5JAX @ TB31–38TB
2011 · W14TB @ JAX14–41JAX
2007 · W8JAX @ TB24–23JAX
2003 · W13TB @ JAX10–17JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–JAX
TBQ1 15:001233Punt0–0
JAXQ1 8:45548Turnover0–0
TBQ1 6:29869Touchdown7–0
JAXQ1 2:492-11Opp touchdown15–0
JAXQ1 2:391158Turnover15–0
TBQ2 11:20863Touchdown22–0
JAXQ2 7:583-1Punt22–0
TBQ2 6:17616Punt22–0
JAXQ2 3:2336Punt22–0
TBQ2 2:26647Field goal25–0
JAXQ2 0:5735Punt25–0
TBQ2 0:24522End of half25–0
JAXQ3 15:00416Punt25–0
TBQ3 12:48624Turnover25–0
JAXQ3 9:15736Field goal25–3
TBQ3 5:461144Turnover on downs25–3
JAXQ3 0:05454Touchdown25–11
TBQ4 13:373-3Punt25–11
JAXQ4 11:181431Turnover25–11
TBQ4 6:0630Punt25–11
JAXQ4 4:4555Turnover on downs25–11
TBQ4 3:1730Field goal28–11
JAXQ4 2:196-5Turnover on downs28–11
TBQ4 1:3600End of half28–11

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston21/3326800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Peyton Barber17442.62
Jameis Winston6203.30
Ronald Jones681.30
T.J. Logan122.00
Dare Ogunbowale100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Breshad Perriman56870
O.J. Howard56610
Mike Evans411530
Chris Godwin Jr.46500
Dare Ogunbowale22120
Cameron Brate1150
Justin Watson0100

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Gardner Minshew16/2714711
Nick Foles7/149301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leonard Fournette14382.70
Gardner Minshew284.00
Nick Foles133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dede Westbrook58601
Chris Conley45570
Leonard Fournette911530
DJ Chark25470
Keelan Cole12110
Nick O'Leary1460
Michael Walker1260
Ryquell Armstead0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.9%4.6%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.1%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

7.49%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.6%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.30
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.12
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.68