2019 · Week 13
Final
TIAA Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 77°F · wind 15mph
Closing spread
TB -3
Total
46.5
Model margin
-1.7est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.000EPA / play-0.053
- 43.6%Success rate39.3%
- +0.084EPA / dropback-0.010
- -0.168EPA / rush-0.145
- 10.0%Explosive rate8.4%
- +0.42CPOE-3.03
- 42.2%Third-down rate35.4%
- 71.0%Red-zone TD rate47.6%
- 1.86Points / drive1.61
- 3.6%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 46.5 points. JAX are 3-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 21/33 | 268 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Barber | 17 | 44 | 2.6 | 2 |
| Jameis Winston | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Ronald Jones | 6 | 8 | 1.3 | 0 |
| T.J. Logan | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breshad Perriman | 5 | 6 | 87 | 0 |
| O.J. Howard | 5 | 6 | 61 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 4 | 11 | 53 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 4 | 6 | 50 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Justin Watson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 16/27 | 147 | 1 | 1 |
| Nick Foles | 7/14 | 93 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 14 | 38 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Gardner Minshew | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Nick Foles | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dede Westbrook | 5 | 8 | 60 | 1 |
| Chris Conley | 4 | 5 | 57 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 9 | 11 | 53 | 0 |
| DJ Chark | 2 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| Keelan Cole | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Nick O'Leary | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Michael Walker | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Ryquell Armstead | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.6%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.30
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-0.12
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.68