2011 · Week 14

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Josh Freeman

14·41

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blaine Gabbert

EverBank Field · outdoors · grass · 58°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

TB -3

Total

41.5

Model margin

+5.5est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

6.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapJaguars
  • -0.107EPA / play-0.173
  • 43.0%Success rate36.3%
  • -0.081EPA / dropback-0.210
  • -0.164EPA / rush-0.127
  • 6.3%Explosive rate7.6%
  • -1.20CPOE-11.15
  • 37.0%Third-down rate34.3%
  • 58.6%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
  • 1.39Points / drive1.10
  • 3.6%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 46.5 points. JAX are 3-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W16JAX @ TB12–30TB
2019 · W13TB @ JAX28–11TB
2015 · W5JAX @ TB31–38TB
2007 · W8JAX @ TB24–23JAX
2003 · W13TB @ JAX10–17JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–JAX
TBQ1 15:001270Touchdown7–0
JAXQ1 9:24618Punt7–0
JAXQ1 6:433-2Punt7–0
TBQ1 4:4133Punt7–0
JAXQ1 3:4033Turnover7–0
TBQ1 2:11652Touchdown14–0
JAXQ2 14:0934Punt14–0
TBQ2 12:30516Punt14–0
JAXQ2 9:37420Touchdown14–7
TBQ2 7:36637Punt14–7
JAXQ2 4:32576Touchdown14–14
TBQ2 2:052-10Opp touchdown14–21
TBQ2 1:53416Turnover14–21
JAXQ2 1:021059Touchdown14–28
TBQ2 0:0400End of half14–28
JAXQ3 15:00628Punt14–28
TBQ3 11:30413Turnover14–28
JAXQ3 9:30322Turnover14–28
TBQ3 8:13111Turnover14–28
JAXQ3 7:5930Punt14–28
TBQ3 6:30633Punt14–28
JAXQ3 3:283-1Punt14–28
TBQ3 2:3032Punt14–28
JAXQ3 0:531371Touchdown14–35
TBQ4 10:22735Turnover on downs14–35
JAXQ4 7:261030Touchdown14–41
TBQ4 2:3123Turnover14–41
JAXQ4 1:5200End of half14–41

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Freeman16/3018102
Josh Johnson1/2301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount18744.11
Josh Freeman4266.51
Mossis Madu166.00
Kregg Lumpkin144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kellen Winslow25380
Preston Parker33350
Mike Williams37350
Dezmon Briscoe37200
Kregg Lumpkin23180
Arrelious Benn1170
LeGarrette Blount1260
Mossis Madu1130
Luke Stocker0100

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blaine Gabbert19/3321722

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Jones-Drew27853.12
DuJuan Harris12424.00
Brock Bolen11010.00
Blaine Gabbert4-3-0.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marcedes Lewis27770
Maurice Jones-Drew66512
Jarett Dillard56450
Kassim Osgood36230
Chastin West24190
Mike Thomas1120
Brock Bolen0100
Cecil Shorts0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

6.31%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.6%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.07
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+5.48