2011 · Week 14
Final
EverBank Field · outdoors · grass · 58°F · wind 12mph
Closing spread
TB -3
Total
41.5
Model margin
+5.5est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
6.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.107EPA / play-0.173
- 43.0%Success rate36.3%
- -0.081EPA / dropback-0.210
- -0.164EPA / rush-0.127
- 6.3%Explosive rate7.6%
- -1.20CPOE-11.15
- 37.0%Third-down rate34.3%
- 58.6%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
- 1.39Points / drive1.10
- 3.6%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 46.5 points. JAX are 3-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 16/30 | 181 | 0 | 2 |
| Josh Johnson | 1/2 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 18 | 74 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Josh Freeman | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Mossis Madu | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Kregg Lumpkin | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kellen Winslow | 2 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Preston Parker | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 3 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| Dezmon Briscoe | 3 | 7 | 20 | 0 |
| Kregg Lumpkin | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Arrelious Benn | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Mossis Madu | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaine Gabbert | 19/33 | 217 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 27 | 85 | 3.1 | 2 |
| DuJuan Harris | 1 | 24 | 24.0 | 0 |
| Brock Bolen | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 4 | -3 | -0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcedes Lewis | 2 | 7 | 77 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 6 | 6 | 51 | 2 |
| Jarett Dillard | 5 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Kassim Osgood | 3 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Chastin West | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Brock Bolen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cecil Shorts | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
6.31%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.6%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.07
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+5.48