2023 · Week 16

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

12·30

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Baker Mayfield

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

JAX -2

Total

43

Model margin

+2.2est.

TB perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.032EPA / play+0.008
  • 43.1%Success rate40.5%
  • +0.053EPA / dropback+0.110
  • -0.192EPA / rush-0.166
  • 7.1%Explosive rate8.6%
  • +1.62CPOE+0.25
  • 38.5%Third-down rate42.2%
  • 56.5%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
  • 1.84Points / drive1.86
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 46.5 points. TB are 3-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2019 · W13TB @ JAX28–11TB
2015 · W5JAX @ TB31–38TB
2011 · W14TB @ JAX14–41JAX
2007 · W8JAX @ TB24–23JAX
2003 · W13TB @ JAX10–17JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–TB
TBQ1 15:001369Field goal0–3
JAXQ1 7:22726Turnover0–3
TBQ1 4:001156Touchdown0–10
JAXQ2 12:531041Missed field goal0–10
TBQ2 6:20930Field goal0–13
JAXQ2 2:27418Turnover0–13
TBQ2 1:34770Touchdown0–20
JAXQ2 0:453-1Punt0–20
TBQ2 0:1000End of half0–20
JAXQ3 15:00315Turnover0–20
TBQ3 13:33537Touchdown0–27
JAXQ3 11:30740Turnover on downs0–27
TBQ3 9:21927Field goal0–30
JAXQ3 3:491075Touchdown6–30
TBQ3 0:5039Punt6–30
JAXQ4 13:32215Turnover6–30
TBQ4 12:58413Turnover on downs6–30
JAXQ4 11:301139Turnover on downs6–30
TBQ4 8:183-6Punt6–30
JAXQ4 5:45737Touchdown12–30
TBQ4 4:36733End of half12–30

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence17/2921112
C.J. Beathard11/159410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Trevor Lawrence4297.30
Travis Etienne6122.00
C.J. Beathard166.00
D'Ernest Johnson122.00
Calvin Ridley1-12-12.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Evan Engram1015950
Calvin Ridley69902
Elijah Cooks33380
Tim Jones35320
Travis Etienne33190
Parker Washington24190
Jamal Agnew15120

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield26/3528320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rachaad White20391.91
Chase Edmonds10252.50
Baker Mayfield551.00
Chris Godwin Jr.111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans79862
Chris Godwin Jr.610780
Trey Palmer46420
Rachaad White67380
Payne Durham11250
David Moore1170
Cade Otton1170

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -24.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

2.05%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.9%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.47
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.17