2023 · Week 16
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 11mph
Closing spread
JAX -2
Total
43
Model margin
+2.2est.
TB perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.032EPA / play+0.008
- 43.1%Success rate40.5%
- +0.053EPA / dropback+0.110
- -0.192EPA / rush-0.166
- 7.1%Explosive rate8.6%
- +1.62CPOE+0.25
- 38.5%Third-down rate42.2%
- 56.5%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
- 1.84Points / drive1.86
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 46.5 points. TB are 3-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 17/29 | 211 | 1 | 2 |
| C.J. Beathard | 11/15 | 94 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 0 |
| C.J. Beathard | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 1 | -12 | -12.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 10 | 15 | 95 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 6 | 9 | 90 | 2 |
| Elijah Cooks | 3 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Tim Jones | 3 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Parker Washington | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Jamal Agnew | 1 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 26/35 | 283 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachaad White | 20 | 39 | 1.9 | 1 |
| Chase Edmonds | 10 | 25 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 7 | 9 | 86 | 2 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 6 | 10 | 78 | 0 |
| Trey Palmer | 4 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 6 | 7 | 38 | 0 |
| Payne Durham | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
| David Moore | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Cade Otton | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.9%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.47
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.17