2007 · Week 8
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 84°F · wind 11mph
Closing spread
TB -3.5
Total
32.5
Model margin
+3.6est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.108EPA / play-0.004
- 44.1%Success rate41.9%
- +0.191EPA / dropback+0.063
- +0.015EPA / rush-0.100
- 10.4%Explosive rate8.8%
- +2.15CPOE+2.62
- 47.2%Third-down rate39.3%
- 66.6%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
- 2.25Points / drive1.64
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 46.5 points. TB are 3-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | JAX–TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 33 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 11:11 | 7 | 29 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| JAX | Q1 7:26 | 10 | 50 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| TB | Q1 1:31 | 6 | 29 | Punt | 7–3 |
| JAX | Q2 13:24 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–3 |
| TB | Q2 11:50 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 7–3 |
| JAX | Q2 9:36 | 4 | 34 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| TB | Q2 7:25 | 1 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 17–3 |
| TB | Q2 7:09 | 3 | 81 | Touchdown | 17–10 |
| JAX | Q2 5:45 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 17–10 |
| TB | Q2 3:57 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 17–10 |
| JAX | Q2 2:28 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 17–10 |
| TB | Q2 2:01 | 10 | 67 | Field goal | 17–13 |
| JAX | Q2 0:15 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–13 |
| TB | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 50 | Turnover | 17–13 |
| JAX | Q3 11:39 | 8 | 20 | Turnover on downs | 17–13 |
| TB | Q3 7:59 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 17–13 |
| JAX | Q3 6:23 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 17–13 |
| TB | Q3 4:43 | 3 | 33 | Touchdown | 17–20 |
| JAX | Q3 3:19 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 17–20 |
| TB | Q3 1:39 | 3 | 6 | Field goal | 17–23 |
| JAX | Q3 0:05 | 8 | 53 | Touchdown | 24–23 |
| TB | Q4 11:37 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 24–23 |
| JAX | Q4 10:13 | 4 | 2 | Punt | 24–23 |
| TB | Q4 7:58 | 6 | 42 | Punt | 24–23 |
| JAX | Q4 4:47 | 7 | 23 | Punt | 24–23 |
| TB | Q4 1:43 | 7 | 21 | Turnover | 24–23 |
| JAX | Q4 0:19 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 24–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinn Gray | 7/16 | 100 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 24 | 68 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 10 | 48 | 4.8 | 0 |
| LaBrandon Toefield | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Quinn Gray | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 19/41 | 267 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnest Graham | 14 | 62 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 4 | 45 | 11.3 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 2 | 23 | 11.5 | 1 |
| Ike Hilliard | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.7%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.82
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.79
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.61