2007 · Week 8
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 84°F · wind 11mph
Closing spread
TB -3.5
Total
32.5
Model margin
+3.6est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.108EPA / play-0.004
- 44.1%Success rate41.9%
- +0.191EPA / dropback+0.063
- +0.015EPA / rush-0.100
- 10.4%Explosive rate8.8%
- +2.15CPOE+2.62
- 47.2%Third-down rate39.3%
- 66.6%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
- 2.25Points / drive1.64
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 46.5 points. TB are 3-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinn Gray | 7/16 | 100 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 24 | 68 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 10 | 48 | 4.8 | 0 |
| LaBrandon Toefield | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Quinn Gray | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 19/41 | 267 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnest Graham | 14 | 62 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 4 | 45 | 11.3 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 2 | 23 | 11.5 | 1 |
| Ike Hilliard | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.7%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.82
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.79
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.61