2003 · Week 13

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Brad Johnson

10·17

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Byron Leftwich

Alltel Stadium · outdoors · grass · 46°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

TB -3

Total

37

Model margin

+1.6est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

7.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapJaguars
  • -0.043EPA / play-0.032
  • 41.6%Success rate41.2%
  • +0.014EPA / dropback-0.002
  • -0.134EPA / rush-0.070
  • 7.3%Explosive rate8.9%
  • 35.7%Third-down rate36.7%
  • 68.3%Red-zone TD rate52.7%
  • 1.38Points / drive1.46
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.7%
  • -0.116EPA / play allowed-0.021

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 46.5 points. JAX are 3-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W16JAX @ TB12–30TB
2019 · W13TB @ JAX28–11TB
2015 · W5JAX @ TB31–38TB
2011 · W14TB @ JAX14–41JAX
2007 · W8JAX @ TB24–23JAX

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brad Johnson21/3815601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Pittman10606.00
Thomas Jones7111.61
Brad Johnson263.00

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Byron Leftwich20/3422420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Taylor291184.10
LaBrandon Toefield294.50
Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala155.00
Byron Leftwich331.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.2%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

7.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.3%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.06
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+1.58