2003 · Week 13
Final
Alltel Stadium · outdoors · grass · 46°F · wind 0mph
Closing spread
TB -3
Total
37
Model margin
+1.6est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.043EPA / play-0.032
- 41.6%Success rate41.2%
- +0.014EPA / dropback-0.002
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.070
- 7.3%Explosive rate8.9%
- 35.7%Third-down rate36.7%
- 68.3%Red-zone TD rate52.7%
- 1.38Points / drive1.46
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.7%
- -0.116EPA / play allowed-0.021
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 46.5 points. JAX are 3-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TB–JAX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX | Q1 15:00 | 12 | 51 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 8:41 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 7:03 | 6 | 32 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 3:35 | 4 | 7 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 1:55 | 7 | 40 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| TB | Q2 13:46 | 11 | 56 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| JAX | Q2 8:12 | 2 | 6 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| TB | Q2 7:21 | 5 | 10 | Field goal | 10–7 |
| JAX | Q2 5:05 | 10 | 65 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| TB | Q2 0:12 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–10 |
| JAX | Q2 0:10 | 2 | 14 | End of half | 10–10 |
| TB | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 24 | Punt | 10–10 |
| JAX | Q3 11:51 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 10–10 |
| TB | Q3 10:59 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 10–10 |
| JAX | Q3 8:46 | 8 | 46 | Missed field goal | 10–10 |
| TB | Q3 5:27 | 10 | 57 | Missed field goal | 10–10 |
| JAX | Q3 0:56 | 5 | 11 | Punt | 10–10 |
| TB | Q4 13:43 | 4 | 20 | Punt | 10–10 |
| JAX | Q4 10:40 | 3 | 48 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| TB | Q4 10:23 | 8 | 14 | Punt | 10–17 |
| JAX | Q4 7:58 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 10–17 |
| TB | Q4 5:12 | 6 | 18 | Turnover on downs | 10–17 |
| JAX | Q4 3:11 | 8 | 25 | End of half | 10–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 21/38 | 156 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 10 | 60 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 7 | 11 | 1.6 | 1 |
| Brad Johnson | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Leftwich | 20/34 | 224 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 29 | 118 | 4.1 | 0 |
| LaBrandon Toefield | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Byron Leftwich | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
7.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.3%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.06
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.58