Closing spread
CAR -3.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
-3.1est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.074EPA / play-0.103
- 45.5%Success rate41.1%
- +0.153EPA / dropback-0.050
- -0.022EPA / rush-0.200
- 10.3%Explosive rate7.8%
- +0.41CPOE+0.30
- 42.1%Third-down rate32.1%
- 71.5%Red-zone TD rate67.5%
- 2.31Points / drive1.32
- 1.8%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 38 points. TEN are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 21/25 | 217 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 22 | 91 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Cam Newton | 9 | 23 | 2.6 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Olsen | 8 | 8 | 80 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 4 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Devin Funchess | 2 | 2 | 41 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 3 | 3 | 21 | 1 |
| Corey Brown | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 16/24 | 185 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dexter McCluster | 3 | 25 | 8.3 | 1 |
| Marcus Mariota | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Antonio Andrews | 11 | 8 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Bishop Sankey | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delanie Walker | 3 | 4 | 52 | 0 |
| Justin Hunter | 4 | 4 | 47 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 4 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 1 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Jalston Fowler | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Rico Richardson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dorial Green-Beckham | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
40.8%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.60
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.12