2015 · Week 10

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

27·10

Titans

Tennessee

QB Marcus Mariota

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 57°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

CAR -3.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

-3.1est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapTitans
  • +0.074EPA / play-0.103
  • 45.5%Success rate41.1%
  • +0.153EPA / dropback-0.050
  • -0.022EPA / rush-0.200
  • 10.3%Explosive rate7.8%
  • +0.41CPOE+0.30
  • 42.1%Third-down rate32.1%
  • 71.5%Red-zone TD rate67.5%
  • 2.31Points / drive1.32
  • 1.8%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 4–2 since 1999

Meetings average 38 points. TEN are 4-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W12CAR @ TEN10–17TEN
2019 · W9TEN @ CAR20–30CAR
2011 · W10TEN @ CAR30–3TEN
2007 · W9CAR @ TEN7–20TEN
2003 · W7TEN @ CAR37–17TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–TEN
TENQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
CARQ1 13:51968Touchdown7–0
TENQ1 8:361082Touchdown7–7
CARQ1 3:381080Touchdown14–7
TENQ2 13:14859Field goal14–10
CARQ2 7:45720Punt14–10
TENQ2 4:04425Punt14–10
CARQ2 0:593-8Punt14–10
TENQ2 0:0410End of half14–10
CARQ3 15:006-3Punt14–10
TENQ3 10:51510Turnover14–10
CARQ3 8:17613Punt14–10
TENQ3 5:2439Punt14–10
CARQ3 4:01829Field goal17–10
TENQ3 0:2332Punt17–10
CARQ4 13:22742Field goal20–10
TENQ4 9:0633Punt20–10
CARQ4 7:261064Touchdown27–10
TENQ4 2:42652Turnover27–10
CARQ4 1:0000End of half27–10

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton21/2521710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Stewart22914.11
Cam Newton9232.61

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Olsen88800
Ted Ginn47450
Devin Funchess22410
Ed Dickson33211
Corey Brown1180
Jerricho Cotchery2360

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota16/2418501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dexter McCluster3258.31
Marcus Mariota5244.80
Antonio Andrews1180.70
Bishop Sankey273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Delanie Walker34520
Justin Hunter44470
Dexter McCluster45270
Harry Douglas33260
Anthony Fasano14190
Jalston Fowler11140
Rico Richardson0100
Dorial Green-Beckham0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.7%3.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%3.9%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

40.8%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.60
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-3.12