2011 · Week 10

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Matt Hasselbeck

30·3

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 57°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

CAR -3.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+3.5est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapPanthers
  • -0.046EPA / play+0.102
  • 39.2%Success rate44.8%
  • +0.025EPA / dropback+0.093
  • -0.170EPA / rush+0.115
  • 8.7%Explosive rate12.3%
  • -1.91CPOE-0.04
  • 35.9%Third-down rate38.7%
  • 68.0%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
  • 1.51Points / drive2.08
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 4–2 since 1999

Meetings average 38 points. CAR are 2-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W12CAR @ TEN10–17TEN
2019 · W9TEN @ CAR20–30CAR
2015 · W10CAR @ TEN27–10CAR
2007 · W9CAR @ TEN7–20TEN
2003 · W7TEN @ CAR37–17TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–CAR
CARQ1 15:0033Opp touchdown7–0
CARQ1 13:561165Turnover7–0
TENQ1 8:15692Touchdown14–0
CARQ1 5:4536Punt14–0
TENQ1 3:48822Field goal17–0
CARQ2 14:5331Punt17–0
TENQ2 13:0054Punt17–0
CARQ2 11:1532Punt17–0
TENQ2 9:5439Punt17–0
CARQ2 8:403-5Punt17–0
TENQ2 7:34626Punt17–0
CARQ2 5:03419Punt17–0
TENQ2 2:2039Punt17–0
CARQ2 1:41743Missed field goal17–0
TENQ3 15:00518Punt17–0
CARQ3 12:19422Punt17–0
TENQ3 9:40712Turnover17–0
CARQ3 6:1538Field goal17–3
TENQ3 4:09758Field goal20–3
CARQ3 0:3539Punt20–3
TENQ4 14:52855Field goal23–3
CARQ4 10:41863Turnover23–3
TENQ4 8:431278Touchdown30–3
CARQ4 2:321243End of half30–3

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck15/2721911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson271304.81
Matt Hasselbeck12121.00
Javon Ringer6193.20
Nate Washington122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Damian Williams571071
Chris Johnson47440
Nate Washington34400
Jared Cook13180
Javon Ringer1370
Lavelle Hawkins1130
Donnie Avery0100

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton23/4021201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Newton7557.90
DeAngelo Williams8354.40
Jonathan Stewart4235.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Legedu Naanee89750
Greg Olsen411450
Steve Smith58330
Jonathan Stewart47220
Jeremy Shockey11190
Brandon LaFell12180
DeAngelo Williams0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.4%

Expected total

45.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.44
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+3.49