Closing spread
CAR -3.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+3.5est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.046EPA / play+0.102
- 39.2%Success rate44.8%
- +0.025EPA / dropback+0.093
- -0.170EPA / rush+0.115
- 8.7%Explosive rate12.3%
- -1.91CPOE-0.04
- 35.9%Third-down rate38.7%
- 68.0%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
- 1.51Points / drive2.08
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 38 points. CAR are 2-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 15/27 | 219 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 27 | 130 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 1 | 21 | 21.0 | 0 |
| Javon Ringer | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damian Williams | 5 | 7 | 107 | 1 |
| Chris Johnson | 4 | 7 | 44 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 3 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 1 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Javon Ringer | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Lavelle Hawkins | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Donnie Avery | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 23/40 | 212 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 7 | 55 | 7.9 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 8 | 35 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Legedu Naanee | 8 | 9 | 75 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 4 | 11 | 45 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 5 | 8 | 33 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 4 | 7 | 22 | 0 |
| Jeremy Shockey | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.4%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.44
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.49