Closing spread
CAR -3.5
Total
43
Model margin
-2.8est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.063EPA / play-0.082
- 45.7%Success rate43.3%
- +0.143EPA / dropback-0.070
- -0.046EPA / rush-0.106
- 11.6%Explosive rate7.4%
- +3.45CPOE-2.45
- 39.4%Third-down rate32.4%
- 74.8%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
- 1.99Points / drive1.56
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 38 points. CAR are 2-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 27/39 | 331 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 13 | 63 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 4 | 38 | 9.5 | 1 |
| Dion Lewis | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 4 | 7 | 81 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 4 | 4 | 65 | 0 |
| Corey Davis | 4 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 3 | 3 | 36 | 1 |
| Dion Lewis | 5 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 2 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 3 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Anthony Firkser | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Allen | 17/32 | 232 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 24 | 146 | 6.1 | 2 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Reggie Bonnafon | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Kyle Allen | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | 7 | 10 | 101 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 3 | 6 | 64 | 1 |
| Greg Olsen | 3 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 3 | 3 | 20 | 1 |
| Reggie Bonnafon | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.6%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.54
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.80