2019 · Week 9

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Ryan Tannehill

20·30

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 58°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

CAR -3.5

Total

43

Model margin

-2.8est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapPanthers
  • +0.063EPA / play-0.082
  • 45.7%Success rate43.3%
  • +0.143EPA / dropback-0.070
  • -0.046EPA / rush-0.106
  • 11.6%Explosive rate7.4%
  • +3.45CPOE-2.45
  • 39.4%Third-down rate32.4%
  • 74.8%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
  • 1.99Points / drive1.56
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 4–2 since 1999

Meetings average 38 points. CAR are 2-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W12CAR @ TEN10–17TEN
2015 · W10CAR @ TEN27–10CAR
2011 · W10TEN @ CAR30–3TEN
2007 · W9CAR @ TEN7–20TEN
2003 · W7TEN @ CAR37–17TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–CAR
CARQ1 15:00614Punt0–0
TENQ1 12:0249Missed field goal0–0
CARQ1 9:41728Turnover0–0
TENQ1 6:49635Punt0–0
CARQ1 3:491051Field goal0–3
TENQ2 13:28430Turnover0–3
CARQ2 11:2934Punt0–3
TENQ2 10:3621Turnover0–3
CARQ2 9:49415Touchdown0–10
TENQ2 8:0732Punt0–10
CARQ2 7:041290Touchdown0–17
TENQ2 0:58637Missed field goal0–17
TENQ3 15:00872Touchdown7–17
CARQ3 10:111159Touchdown7–24
TENQ3 5:163-5Punt7–24
CARQ3 3:2034Punt7–24
TENQ3 2:20894Touchdown14–24
CARQ4 14:14793Touchdown14–30
TENQ4 10:23540Turnover14–30
CARQ4 8:33415Missed field goal14–30
TENQ4 6:011161Touchdown20–30
CARQ4 2:493-1Punt20–30
TENQ4 2:29955Missed field goal20–30
CARQ4 0:4700End of half20–30

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill27/3933112

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry13634.81
Ryan Tannehill4389.51
Dion Lewis4205.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Brown47810
Adam Humphries44650
Corey Davis45480
Derrick Henry33361
Dion Lewis55330
Tajae Sharpe24310
Kalif Raymond23190
Jonnu Smith35180
Anthony Firkser0100

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Allen17/3223221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey241466.12
Curtis Samuel11010.00
Reggie Bonnafon362.00
Kyle Allen3-4-1.30
Jarius Wright1-7-7.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Moore7101010
Curtis Samuel36641
Greg Olsen36400
Christian McCaffrey33201
Reggie Bonnafon1170
Jarius Wright0400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.0%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%2.6%3.9%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

2.28%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

41.6%

Expected total

46.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.54
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.80