Closing spread
TEN -5
Total
36
Model margin
+4.5est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Titans
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.088EPA / play-0.066
- 38.9%Success rate42.4%
- -0.070EPA / dropback-0.003
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.139
- 7.7%Explosive rate7.0%
- -5.47CPOE+1.31
- 36.1%Third-down rate41.4%
- 53.0%Red-zone TD rate48.8%
- 1.27Points / drive1.43
- 2.6%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 38 points. TEN are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CAR–TEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 52 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| CAR | Q1 8:59 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–7 |
| TEN | Q1 6:58 | 4 | 18 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CAR | Q1 5:26 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 0–7 |
| TEN | Q1 3:35 | 3 | 2 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| CAR | Q1 2:06 | 8 | 4 | Punt | 0–10 |
| TEN | Q2 14:16 | 6 | 15 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| CAR | Q2 11:03 | 3 | 7 | Missed field goal | 0–10 |
| TEN | Q2 9:45 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–10 |
| CAR | Q2 7:50 | 3 | 7 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| TEN | Q2 6:38 | 2 | -1 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| CAR | Q2 5:56 | 8 | 43 | Punt | 0–10 |
| TEN | Q2 1:50 | 10 | 41 | Field goal | 0–13 |
| CAR | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–13 |
| TEN | Q3 13:08 | 2 | -3 | Turnover | 0–13 |
| CAR | Q3 12:27 | 6 | 26 | Punt | 0–13 |
| CAR | Q3 8:41 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–13 |
| TEN | Q3 7:20 | 4 | 1 | Punt | 0–13 |
| CAR | Q3 4:49 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 0–13 |
| TEN | Q3 3:23 | 13 | 72 | Touchdown | 0–20 |
| CAR | Q4 11:45 | 7 | 57 | Touchdown | 7–20 |
| TEN | Q4 9:29 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–20 |
| CAR | Q4 8:22 | 6 | 6 | Punt | 7–20 |
| TEN | Q4 6:40 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 7–20 |
| CAR | Q4 3:30 | 8 | 35 | Turnover | 7–20 |
| TEN | Q4 2:13 | 2 | 11 | End of half | 7–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 15/27 | 107 | 1 | 1 |
| Matt Moore | 2/5 | 36 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShaun Foster | 17 | 63 | 3.7 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| David Carr | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 14/23 | 110 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LenDale White | 31 | 100 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Vince Young | 8 | 25 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Brandon Jones | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Chris Henry | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.1%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.68
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.27
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.52