Closing spread
TEN -5
Total
36
Model margin
+4.5est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Titans
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.088EPA / play-0.066
- 38.9%Success rate42.4%
- -0.070EPA / dropback-0.003
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.139
- 7.7%Explosive rate7.0%
- -5.47CPOE+1.31
- 36.1%Third-down rate41.4%
- 53.0%Red-zone TD rate48.8%
- 1.27Points / drive1.43
- 2.6%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 38 points. TEN are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 15/27 | 107 | 1 | 1 |
| Matt Moore | 2/5 | 36 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShaun Foster | 17 | 63 | 3.7 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| David Carr | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 14/23 | 110 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LenDale White | 31 | 100 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Vince Young | 8 | 25 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Brandon Jones | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Chris Henry | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.1%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.68
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.27
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.52