Closing spread
PK
Total
37.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Panthers
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.040EPA / play-0.070
- 42.3%Success rate39.3%
- +0.215EPA / dropback-0.010
- -0.172EPA / rush-0.132
- 9.2%Explosive rate10.2%
- 41.2%Third-down rate35.8%
- 62.5%Red-zone TD rate54.6%
- 1.93Points / drive1.35
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.083EPA / play allowed-0.075
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 38 points. CAR are 2-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 12/22 | 190 | 1 | 0 |
| Billy Volek | 1/2 | 50 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 18 | 51 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 2 | 30 | 15.0 | 1 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 31/49 | 362 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 11 | 20 | 1.8 | 0 |
| DeShaun Foster | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Nick Goings | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
1.85%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.9%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.77
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.79