2023 · Week 12

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Bryce Young

10·17

Titans

Tennessee

QB Will Levis

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 51°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

TEN -3.5

Total

36

Model margin

+3.9est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapTitans
  • -0.160EPA / play-0.023
  • 38.2%Success rate40.9%
  • -0.163EPA / dropback+0.014
  • -0.155EPA / rush-0.078
  • 6.3%Explosive rate9.0%
  • -1.80CPOE+0.48
  • 34.8%Third-down rate34.1%
  • 42.3%Red-zone TD rate49.4%
  • 1.00Points / drive1.57
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 4–2 since 1999

Meetings average 38 points. TEN are 4-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2019 · W9TEN @ CAR20–30CAR
2015 · W10CAR @ TEN27–10CAR
2011 · W10TEN @ CAR30–3TEN
2007 · W9CAR @ TEN7–20TEN
2003 · W7TEN @ CAR37–17TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–TEN
TENQ1 15:00420Punt0–0
CARQ1 13:14423Punt0–0
TENQ1 10:101596Touchdown0–7
CARQ1 0:341552Field goal3–7
TENQ2 8:513-7Punt3–7
CARQ2 6:32718Turnover3–7
TENQ2 3:06215Touchdown3–14
CARQ2 2:2736Punt3–14
TENQ2 1:3936Punt3–14
CARQ2 0:5038Punt3–14
TENQ2 0:28327Field goal3–17
CARQ3 15:001348Touchdown10–17
TENQ3 8:06422Punt10–17
CARQ3 5:20930Punt10–17
TENQ3 0:24425Punt10–17
CARQ4 14:00720Punt10–17
TENQ4 11:33427Punt10–17
CARQ4 10:01949Punt10–17
TENQ4 5:54736Punt10–17
CARQ4 2:5744Turnover on downs10–17
TENQ4 1:5500End of half10–17

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bryce Young18/3119400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chuba Hubbard14453.21
Miles Sanders15281.90
Bryce Young3237.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jonathan Mingo46600
Chuba Hubbard55470
DJ Chark34340
Ihmir Smith-Marsette11140
Stephen Sullivan11130
Ian Thomas1190
Laviska Shenault Jr.1180
Tommy Tremble1170
Adam Thielen1320
Miles Sanders0100

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Will Levis18/2818500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry18764.22
Tyjae Spears263.00
Chris Moore111.00
Will Levis3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins35490
Chig Okonkwo45450
Chris Moore34410
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine45410
Josh Whyle11110
Tyjae Spears1310
Derrick Henry1200
Kyle Philips12-30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.8%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.4%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.15
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.86