Closing spread
TEN -3.5
Total
36
Model margin
+3.9est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.160EPA / play-0.023
- 38.2%Success rate40.9%
- -0.163EPA / dropback+0.014
- -0.155EPA / rush-0.078
- 6.3%Explosive rate9.0%
- -1.80CPOE+0.48
- 34.8%Third-down rate34.1%
- 42.3%Red-zone TD rate49.4%
- 1.00Points / drive1.57
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 38 points. TEN are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 18/31 | 194 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard | 14 | 45 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Miles Sanders | 15 | 28 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Bryce Young | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Mingo | 4 | 6 | 60 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 5 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| DJ Chark | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Ihmir Smith-Marsette | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Stephen Sullivan | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Levis | 18/28 | 185 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 18 | 76 | 4.2 | 2 |
| Tyjae Spears | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Will Levis | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 3 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 4 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 3 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 4 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Josh Whyle | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Tyjae Spears | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Philips | 1 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.4%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.15
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.86