2016 · Postseason
Week 17
Week 17: 16 games played. Cardinals produced the widest margin at 38 points; the tightest finish was Panthers at Buccaneers, decided by 1.
Briefing7
Dolphins start Matt Moore rather than Ryan Tannehill, which the model treats as worth about 4.4 points for them.
Bills start EJ Manuel rather than Tyrod Taylor, which the model treats as worth about 9.7 points against them.
Cowboys start Mark Sanchez rather than Dak Prescott, which the model treats as worth about 25.0 points against them.
Steelers start Landry Jones rather than Ben Roethlisberger, which the model treats as worth about 2.5 points against them.
Falcons lead the league in offensive EPA per play at +0.196, 0.068 clear of second.
Broncos have been the most efficient defence, allowing -0.119 EPA per play.
The model's widest disagreement with the market is Seahawks at 49ers, where it rates 49ers about 9.3 points better than the line. Worth understanding, not worth backing — the model's picks have gone 49.93% against the spread historically, below the 52.38% needed to break even.
Slate
