2018 · Postseason
Week 17
Week 17: 16 games played. Patriots produced the widest margin at 35 points; the tightest finish was Cowboys at Giants, decided by 1.
Briefing7
Packers start DeShone Kizer rather than Aaron Rodgers, which the model treats as worth about 21.5 points against them.
Saints start Teddy Bridgewater rather than Drew Brees, which the model treats as worth about 18.8 points against them.
Panthers start Kyle Allen rather than Cam Newton, which the model treats as worth about 11.7 points for them.
Ravens start Lamar Jackson rather than Joe Flacco, which the model treats as worth about 2.9 points against them.
Chiefs lead the league in offensive EPA per play at +0.236, 0.081 clear of second.
Bears have been the most efficient defence, allowing -0.127 EPA per play.
The model's widest disagreement with the market is Panthers at Saints, where it rates Panthers about 11.6 points better than the line. Worth understanding, not worth backing — the model's picks have gone 49.93% against the spread historically, below the 52.38% needed to break even.
Slate
