Closing spread
SEA -3
Total
49
Model margin
-2.8est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
6.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.203EPA / play+0.018
- 48.1%Success rate45.5%
- +0.322EPA / dropback+0.119
- +0.088EPA / rush-0.134
- 12.0%Explosive rate9.6%
- +3.13CPOE+7.05
- 48.0%Third-down rate39.1%
- 68.9%Red-zone TD rate65.9%
- 2.90Points / drive1.86
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. SEA are 3-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 9/20 | 143 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 14 | 116 | 8.3 | 1 |
| Mark Ingram | 12 | 46 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 8 | 35 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Willie Snead | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Boykin | 2 | 2 | 55 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 2 | 8 | 39 | 0 |
| Nick Boyle | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Hayden Hurst | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Seth Roberts | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Willie Snead | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 20/41 | 241 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Carson | 21 | 65 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 3 | 27 | 9.0 | 0 |
| C.J. Prosise | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 5 | 7 | 61 | 1 |
| Jaron Brown | 3 | 6 | 60 | 0 |
| DK Metcalf | 4 | 9 | 53 | 0 |
| Malik Turner | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Jacob Hollister | 3 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| David Moore | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Chris Carson | 3 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
6.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.5%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.58
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.84