2015 · Week 14

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

35·6

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Jimmy Clausen

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · sportturf · 65°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

SEA -10.5

Total

42

Model margin

-5.8est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapRavens
  • +0.105EPA / play-0.081
  • 47.1%Success rate42.4%
  • +0.255EPA / dropback-0.034
  • -0.104EPA / rush-0.170
  • 10.9%Explosive rate8.1%
  • +7.64CPOE-0.66
  • 47.8%Third-down rate37.0%
  • 63.8%Red-zone TD rate49.4%
  • 2.18Points / drive1.48
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. BAL are 2-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W9SEA @ BAL3–37BAL
2019 · W7BAL @ SEA30–16BAL
2011 · W10BAL @ SEA17–22SEA
2007 · W16BAL @ SEA6–27SEA
2003 · W12SEA @ BAL41–44BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–BAL
BALQ1 15:00729Punt0–0
SEAQ1 11:261180Touchdown7–0
BALQ1 5:08519Punt7–0
SEAQ1 2:1430Punt7–0
BALQ1 1:10432Field goal7–3
SEAQ2 13:391058Turnover7–3
BALQ2 8:31950Punt7–3
SEAQ2 3:58831Punt7–3
BALQ2 1:002-4Turnover7–3
SEAQ2 0:47214Touchdown14–3
BALQ2 0:38358Field goal14–6
SEAQ3 15:001277Touchdown21–6
BALQ3 8:54923Punt21–6
SEAQ3 4:54986Touchdown28–6
BALQ4 14:5335Punt28–6
SEAQ4 13:5439Punt28–6
BALQ4 12:02312Turnover28–6
SEAQ4 11:16438Touchdown35–6
BALQ4 8:551280Turnover on downs35–6
SEAQ4 4:46534End of half35–6

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson23/3229250
Tarvaris Jackson1/1900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Thomas Rawls6447.30
DuJuan Harris18422.30
Fred Jackson7152.10
Russell Wilson166.00
Tarvaris Jackson3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Lockett671042
Doug Baldwin69823
Jermaine Kearse78740
Cooper Helfet22200
Fred Jackson1480
Luke Willson1280
Kevin Smith1150

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Clausen23/4027401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Terrance West5163.20
Javorius Allen8141.80
Jimmy Clausen1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kamar Aiken57900
Jeremy Butler710720
Daniel Brown56470
Javorius Allen59440
Chris Matthews12210
Chris Givens0500

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -10.53.1%3.3%5.0%3.2%7.4%6.2%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

3.32%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

33.9%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.46
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.82
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-5.79