Closing spread
SEA -10.5
Total
42
Model margin
-5.8est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.105EPA / play-0.081
- 47.1%Success rate42.4%
- +0.255EPA / dropback-0.034
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.170
- 10.9%Explosive rate8.1%
- +7.64CPOE-0.66
- 47.8%Third-down rate37.0%
- 63.8%Red-zone TD rate49.4%
- 2.18Points / drive1.48
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. BAL are 2-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 23/32 | 292 | 5 | 0 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 1/1 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Rawls | 6 | 44 | 7.3 | 0 |
| DuJuan Harris | 18 | 42 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 7 | 15 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 6 | 7 | 104 | 2 |
| Doug Baldwin | 6 | 9 | 82 | 3 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 7 | 8 | 74 | 0 |
| Cooper Helfet | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Kevin Smith | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Clausen | 23/40 | 274 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance West | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 8 | 14 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Jimmy Clausen | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamar Aiken | 5 | 7 | 90 | 0 |
| Jeremy Butler | 7 | 10 | 72 | 0 |
| Daniel Brown | 5 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 5 | 9 | 44 | 0 |
| Chris Matthews | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Chris Givens | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
3.32%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
33.9%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.46
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-2.82
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-5.79