Closing spread
BAL -7
Total
38.5
Model margin
+0.5est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
4.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.041EPA / play-0.069
- 41.6%Success rate38.9%
- +0.110EPA / dropback-0.035
- -0.057EPA / rush-0.118
- 8.2%Explosive rate8.9%
- -1.68CPOE+0.03
- 42.5%Third-down rate33.6%
- 60.0%Red-zone TD rate48.7%
- 1.79Points / drive1.31
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. SEA are 3-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 29/52 | 255 | 1 | 1 |
| Ray Rice | 1/1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
| David Reed | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed Dickson | 10 | 14 | 79 | 2 |
| Ray Rice | 8 | 10 | 54 | 0 |
| Dennis Pitta | 4 | 7 | 49 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 3 | 8 | 28 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 2 | 9 | 22 | 0 |
| LaQuan Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarvaris Jackson | 17/27 | 217 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 32 | 109 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Leon Washington | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 5 | 3 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 5 | 7 | 58 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 1 | 3 | 50 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 3 | 3 | 46 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Anthony McCoy | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Sidney Rice | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Ben Obomanu | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
4.33%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.5%
Expected total
41.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.96
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.53