2011 · Week 10

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

17·22

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Tarvaris Jackson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 50°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

BAL -7

Total

38.5

Model margin

+0.5est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

4.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.041EPA / play-0.069
  • 41.6%Success rate38.9%
  • +0.110EPA / dropback-0.035
  • -0.057EPA / rush-0.118
  • 8.2%Explosive rate8.9%
  • -1.68CPOE+0.03
  • 42.5%Third-down rate33.6%
  • 60.0%Red-zone TD rate48.7%
  • 1.79Points / drive1.31
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. SEA are 3-2-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W9SEA @ BAL3–37BAL
2019 · W7BAL @ SEA30–16BAL
2015 · W14SEA @ BAL35–6SEA
2007 · W16BAL @ SEA6–27SEA
2003 · W12SEA @ BAL41–44BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–SEA
SEAQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
BALQ1 13:25638Missed field goal0–0
SEAQ1 10:40660Touchdown0–7
BALQ1 8:0700Field goal0–7
SEAQ1 8:00515Field goal0–10
BALQ1 5:26517Punt0–10
SEAQ1 3:33733Punt0–10
BALQ2 14:161461Touchdown7–10
SEAQ2 9:11661Field goal7–13
BALQ2 5:3934Punt7–13
SEAQ2 4:44720Field goal7–16
BALQ2 1:5200Field goal7–16
SEAQ2 1:4531Field goal7–19
BALQ2 0:46646Missed field goal7–19
SEAQ2 0:0200End of half7–19
BALQ3 15:00515Turnover7–19
SEAQ3 14:043-8Field goal7–22
BALQ3 12:26625Punt7–22
SEAQ3 9:31833Punt7–22
BALQ3 5:461165Field goal10–22
SEAQ3 0:52517Punt10–22
BALQ4 12:3557Punt10–22
SEAQ4 11:11519Punt10–22
BALQ4 9:061245Touchdown17–22
SEAQ4 5:521174End of half17–22

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco29/5225511
Ray Rice1/1110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice5275.40
David Reed11616.00
Torrey Smith11616.00
Ricky Williams382.70
Joe Flacco284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ed Dickson1014792
Ray Rice810540
Dennis Pitta47490
Torrey Smith38280
Ricky Williams33240
Anquan Boldin29220
LaQuan Williams0100

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tarvaris Jackson17/2721700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch321093.41
Leon Washington393.00
Tarvaris Jackson530.60
Justin Forsett133.00
Golden Tate1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marshawn Lynch57580
Doug Baldwin13500
Golden Tate33460
Zach Miller34240
Anthony McCoy22150
Sidney Rice24140
Ben Obomanu12100
Mike Williams0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

4.33%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.5%

Expected total

41.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.96
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.53