2003 · Week 12

Final / OT

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Matt Hasselbeck

41·44

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Anthony Wright

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · sportturf · 55°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

BAL -3

Total

36

Model margin

+4.5est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapRavens
  • +0.070EPA / play-0.093
  • 46.1%Success rate38.5%
  • +0.148EPA / dropback-0.112
  • -0.039EPA / rush-0.074
  • 10.5%Explosive rate9.7%
  • 46.8%Third-down rate31.7%
  • 68.2%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
  • 1.98Points / drive1.53
  • 2.4%Turnover rate3.5%
  • -0.012EPA / play allowed-0.194

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. BAL are 2-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W9SEA @ BAL3–37BAL
2019 · W7BAL @ SEA30–16BAL
2015 · W14SEA @ BAL35–6SEA
2011 · W10BAL @ SEA17–22SEA
2007 · W16BAL @ SEA6–27SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–BAL
SEAQ1 15:00519Punt0–0
BALQ1 13:1044Punt0–0
SEAQ1 11:1745Punt0–0
BALQ1 9:581042Punt0–0
SEAQ1 4:103-5Punt0–0
BALQ1 3:28414Punt0–0
SEAQ1 1:14953Field goal3–0
BALQ2 11:4931Punt3–0
SEAQ2 10:1934Punt3–0
BALQ2 8:5336Punt3–0
SEAQ2 7:2550Turnover3–0
BALQ2 5:0030Field goal3–3
SEAQ2 3:321380Touchdown10–3
BALQ2 0:231-2Turnover16–3
SEAQ2 0:08110Touchdown17–3
BALQ2 0:0100End of half17–3
BALQ3 15:00671Touchdown17–10
SEAQ3 12:07356Touchdown24–10
BALQ3 10:3837Punt24–10
SEAQ3 9:2032Field goal27–10
BALQ3 7:59565Touchdown27–17
SEAQ3 5:26180Touchdown34–17
BALQ3 5:06552Touchdown34–24
SEAQ3 3:18942Touchdown41–24
BALQ4 14:163-2Punt41–24
SEAQ4 13:13624Punt41–24
BALQ4 10:14414Punt41–24
BALQ4 9:1016Turnover41–24
SEAQ4 9:03412Opp touchdown41–31
SEAQ4 6:41532Turnover41–31
BALQ4 4:161276Touchdown41–38
SEAQ4 1:1249Turnover on downs41–38
BALQ4 0:3937Field goal41–41
SEAOT53Punt41–41
BALOT1265Field goal41–44

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck23/4133350
Trent Dilfer0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shaun Alexander22723.30
Matt Hasselbeck3268.70
Maurice Morris122.00

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Anthony Wright20/3731940

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamal Lewis261174.50
Anthony Wright5275.40
Todd Heap177.00
Chester Taylor3-1-0.30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

7.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.1%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.56
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.41
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.53