2019 · Postseason
Week 17
Week 17: 16 games played. Saints produced the widest margin at 32 points; the tightest finish was Raiders at Broncos, decided by 1.
Briefing7
Bills start Matt Barkley rather than Josh Allen, which the model treats as worth about 5.0 points against them.
Panthers start Will Grier rather than Kyle Allen, which the model treats as worth about 13.9 points against them.
Lions start David Blough rather than Matthew Stafford, which the model treats as worth about 15.2 points against them.
Vikings start Sean Mannion rather than Kirk Cousins, which the model treats as worth about 10.2 points against them.
Ravens lead the league in offensive EPA per play at +0.203, 0.068 clear of second.
Patriots have been the most efficient defence, allowing -0.217 EPA per play.
The model's widest disagreement with the market is Dolphins at Patriots, where it rates Dolphins about 13.1 points better than the line. Worth understanding, not worth backing — the model's picks have gone 49.93% against the spread historically, below the 52.38% needed to break even.
Slate
