2023 · Week 9

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Geno Smith

3·37

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 70°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

BAL -6

Total

44.5

Model margin

+4.6est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapRavens
  • +0.032EPA / play+0.069
  • 44.6%Success rate47.3%
  • +0.094EPA / dropback+0.111
  • -0.087EPA / rush+0.009
  • 9.6%Explosive rate9.8%
  • +1.54CPOE+2.73
  • 36.3%Third-down rate42.3%
  • 49.3%Red-zone TD rate64.0%
  • 2.00Points / drive2.25
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. BAL are 2-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2019 · W7BAL @ SEA30–16BAL
2015 · W14SEA @ BAL35–6SEA
2011 · W10BAL @ SEA17–22SEA
2007 · W16BAL @ SEA6–27SEA
2003 · W12SEA @ BAL41–44BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–BAL
SEAQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
BALQ1 13:27415Punt0–0
SEAQ1 11:29526Punt0–0
BALQ1 8:4638Punt0–0
SEAQ1 6:30611Punt0–0
BALQ1 3:411281Touchdown0–7
SEAQ2 13:0636Turnover0–7
BALQ2 12:05321Turnover0–7
SEAQ2 10:3331Punt0–7
BALQ2 8:271181Touchdown0–14
SEAQ2 2:39660Field goal3–14
BALQ2 0:59115Turnover3–14
SEAQ2 0:493-21Turnover3–14
BALQ2 0:33317Field goal3–17
SEAQ2 0:0400End of half3–17
BALQ3 15:00449Field goal3–20
SEAQ3 12:4435Punt3–20
BALQ3 11:161242Field goal3–23
SEAQ3 3:2844Punt3–23
BALQ3 1:52360Touchdown3–30
SEAQ3 0:29949Turnover on downs3–30
BALQ4 12:10878Touchdown3–37
SEAQ4 8:1435Punt3–37
BALQ4 7:19950Turnover on downs3–37
SEAQ4 0:2600End of half3–37

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith13/2815701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenneth Walker III9161.80
Zach Charbonnet482.00
Geno Smith242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jaxon Smith-Njigba67630
DK Metcalf14500
Tyler Lockett38320
Colby Parkinson1160
Zach Charbonnet1150
Kenneth Walker III1210
Will Dissly0100
Noah Fant0100

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson21/2618700
Tyler Huntley5/73810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Keaton Mitchell913815.31
Lamar Jackson10606.00
Gus Edwards55210.42
Justice Hill13403.10
Tyler Huntley482.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mark Andrews910800
Odell Beckham Jr.57561
Isaiah Likely44420
Rashod Bateman35280
Zay Flowers11110
Devin Duvernay22100
Nelson Agholor1120
Justice Hill0100
Keaton Mitchell11-40

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

3.18%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.3%

Expected total

46.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.89
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.59