Closing spread
BAL -6
Total
44.5
Model margin
+4.6est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.032EPA / play+0.069
- 44.6%Success rate47.3%
- +0.094EPA / dropback+0.111
- -0.087EPA / rush+0.009
- 9.6%Explosive rate9.8%
- +1.54CPOE+2.73
- 36.3%Third-down rate42.3%
- 49.3%Red-zone TD rate64.0%
- 2.00Points / drive2.25
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. BAL are 2-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 13/28 | 157 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | 9 | 16 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 6 | 7 | 63 | 0 |
| DK Metcalf | 1 | 4 | 50 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 3 | 8 | 32 | 0 |
| Colby Parkinson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 21/26 | 187 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Huntley | 5/7 | 38 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keaton Mitchell | 9 | 138 | 15.3 | 1 |
| Lamar Jackson | 10 | 60 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 5 | 52 | 10.4 | 2 |
| Justice Hill | 13 | 40 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Tyler Huntley | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Andrews | 9 | 10 | 80 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 5 | 7 | 56 | 1 |
| Isaiah Likely | 4 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Rashod Bateman | 3 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Zay Flowers | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Keaton Mitchell | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
3.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.3%
Expected total
46.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.89
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.59