2007 · Week 16

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Troy Smith

6·27

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Matt Hasselbeck

Qwest Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 43°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

SEA -12.5

Total

39

Model margin

+4.0est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.108EPA / play+0.006
  • 40.5%Success rate45.1%
  • -0.090EPA / dropback+0.107
  • -0.133EPA / rush-0.158
  • 6.5%Explosive rate8.8%
  • +1.46CPOE+2.40
  • 37.9%Third-down rate35.7%
  • 50.1%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
  • 1.35Points / drive1.77
  • 3.2%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. SEA are 3-2-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W9SEA @ BAL3–37BAL
2019 · W7BAL @ SEA30–16BAL
2015 · W14SEA @ BAL35–6SEA
2011 · W10BAL @ SEA17–22SEA
2003 · W12SEA @ BAL41–44BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–SEA
SEAQ1 15:00526Punt0–0
BALQ1 12:41615Punt0–0
SEAQ1 9:48521Punt0–0
BALQ1 7:5535Punt0–0
SEAQ1 5:46430Turnover0–0
BALQ1 4:2147Punt0–0
SEAQ1 2:461289Touchdown0–7
BALQ2 11:34515Punt0–7
SEAQ2 8:54526Turnover0–7
BALQ2 6:59413Opp touchdown0–14
BALQ2 5:5738Punt0–14
SEAQ2 4:15655Touchdown0–21
BALQ2 1:53628Turnover0–21
SEAQ2 0:0700End of half0–21
BALQ3 15:00421Punt0–21
SEAQ3 12:493-4Punt0–21
BALQ3 11:2738Punt0–21
SEAQ3 10:34856Field goal0–24
BALQ3 5:4029Turnover0–24
SEAQ3 4:513-1Field goal0–27
BALQ3 3:07618Punt0–27
SEAQ3 0:16816Punt0–27
BALQ4 11:17615Punt0–27
SEAQ4 7:4037Punt0–27
BALQ4 6:03392Touchdown6–27
SEAQ4 4:41716Turnover on downs6–27
BALQ4 1:54839End of half6–27

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Troy Smith16/3319910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Anderson8445.50
Musa Smith7253.60
Troy Smith6254.20
Willis McGahee5102.00

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck18/2719922
Seneca Wallace1/2300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shaun Alexander13735.60
Maurice Morris15402.70
Matt Hasselbeck3124.00
Seneca Wallace155.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.57.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

1.73%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.7%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.99
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.58
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.96