Closing spread
OAK -2.5
Total
51.5
Model margin
+3.9est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DET lead 5–1 since 1999
Meetings average 45.7 points. OAK are 1-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 26/41 | 406 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.D. McKissic | 4 | 32 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 9 | 29 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Paul Perkins | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Marvin Hall | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Golladay | 4 | 7 | 132 | 1 |
| Marvin Jones | 8 | 10 | 126 | 1 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 3 | 7 | 56 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 3 | 4 | 40 | 1 |
| Danny Amendola | 3 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 3 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Marvin Hall | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.6%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.19
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.93
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.