Closing spread
OAK -3.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
+0.1est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DET lead 5–1 since 1999
Meetings average 45.7 points. DET are 4-1-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 13/21 | 117 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Bryson | 12 | 53 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Olandis Gary | 15 | 46 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Joey Harrington | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Shawn Jefferson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
7.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.4%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.94
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.48
- Expected margin+0.14
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.