Closing spread
OAK -3.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
+0.1est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DET lead 5–1 since 1999
Meetings average 45.7 points. DET are 4-1-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–DET |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 2 | 8 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| DET | Q1 14:20 | 3 | 8 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LV | Q1 12:54 | 8 | 42 | Missed field goal | 0–3 |
| DET | Q1 7:22 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LV | Q1 5:13 | 7 | 37 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| DET | Q1 2:24 | 5 | 7 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| LV | Q1 0:58 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–10 |
| DET | Q2 14:41 | 7 | 38 | Punt | 0–10 |
| LV | Q2 10:38 | 4 | -7 | Punt | 0–10 |
| DET | Q2 8:41 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| LV | Q2 7:45 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 0–10 |
| DET | Q2 4:05 | 4 | 20 | Punt | 0–10 |
| LV | Q2 1:51 | 11 | 48 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| DET | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 66 | Touchdown | 3–17 |
| LV | Q3 11:06 | 15 | 74 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| DET | Q3 2:55 | 10 | 44 | Field goal | 10–20 |
| LV | Q4 12:45 | 4 | 9 | Punt | 10–20 |
| LV | Q4 10:06 | 3 | 8 | Field goal | 13–20 |
| DET | Q4 9:14 | 6 | 14 | Field goal | 13–23 |
| LV | Q4 5:52 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 13–23 |
| DET | Q4 5:41 | 7 | 30 | Punt | 13–23 |
| LV | Q4 2:12 | 7 | 20 | Turnover | 13–23 |
| DET | Q4 1:05 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 13–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 13/21 | 117 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Bryson | 12 | 53 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Olandis Gary | 15 | 46 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Joey Harrington | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Shawn Jefferson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
7.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.4%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.94
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.48
- Expected margin+0.14
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.