Closing spread
DET -7
Total
46
Model margin
+2.3est.
DET perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.086EPA / play+0.058
- 41.5%Success rate45.9%
- -0.045EPA / dropback+0.110
- -0.151EPA / rush-0.014
- 5.9%Explosive rate11.2%
- -3.79CPOE+1.34
- 35.2%Third-down rate42.4%
- 56.2%Red-zone TD rate65.2%
- 1.66Points / drive2.29
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DET lead 5–1 since 1999
Meetings average 45.7 points. DET are 4-1-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 10/21 | 126 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 15 | 61 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 2 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Michael Mayer | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 1 | 7 | 11 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 26/37 | 272 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 26 | 152 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Craig Reynolds | 14 | 74 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 6 | 9 | 108 | 0 |
| Sam LaPorta | 8 | 10 | 57 | 1 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 5 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Jameson Williams | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Craig Reynolds | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Brock Wright | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
4.71%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.2%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.20
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.39
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.29