2023 · Week 8

Final

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Jimmy Garoppolo

14·26

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -7

Total

46

Model margin

+2.3est.

DET perspective

Push chance

4.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Raiders

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Raiders

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsRaiders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Raidersedge mapLions
  • -0.086EPA / play+0.058
  • 41.5%Success rate45.9%
  • -0.045EPA / dropback+0.110
  • -0.151EPA / rush-0.014
  • 5.9%Explosive rate11.2%
  • -3.79CPOE+1.34
  • 35.2%Third-down rate42.4%
  • 56.2%Red-zone TD rate65.2%
  • 1.66Points / drive2.29
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DET lead 5–1 since 1999

Meetings average 45.7 points. DET are 4-1-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2019 · W9DET @ OAK24–31RAIDERS
2015 · W11OAK @ DET13–18DET
2011 · W15DET @ OAK28–27DET
2007 · W1DET @ OAK36–21DET
2003 · W9OAK @ DET13–23DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLV–DET
DETQ1 15:001354Field goal0–3
LVQ1 7:51421Punt0–3
DETQ1 5:44216Turnover0–3
LVQ1 4:5910Turnover0–3
DETQ1 4:4930Punt0–3
LVQ1 3:5548Turnover on downs0–3
DETQ1 2:291051Field goal0–6
LVQ2 12:2334Punt0–6
DETQ2 11:24663Field goal0–9
LVQ2 8:081060Touchdown7–9
DETQ2 2:561079Touchdown7–16
LVQ2 0:2717End of half7–16
LVQ3 15:0045Punt7–16
DETQ3 13:01328Opp touchdown14–16
DETQ3 11:321272Turnover14–16
LVQ3 5:2936Punt14–16
DETQ3 4:02333Touchdown14–23
LVQ3 3:13416Punt14–23
DETQ3 1:071249Field goal14–26
LVQ4 9:59711Turnover on downs14–26
DETQ4 6:55630Missed field goal14–26
LVQ4 4:59519Turnover on downs14–26
DETQ4 3:29413End of half14–26

Box score

Individual performances

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Garoppolo10/2112601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs15614.11
Jimmy Garoppolo2126.00
Ameer Abdullah177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Jacobs24270
Austin Hooper22190
Jakobi Meyers11190
Hunter Renfrow24190
Michael Mayer12190
Ameer Abdullah11120
Davante Adams17110

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff26/3727211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jahmyr Gibbs261525.81
Craig Reynolds14745.30
Kalif Raymond1-2-2.00
Jared Goff2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amon-Ra St. Brown691080
Sam LaPorta810571
Jahmyr Gibbs55370
Kalif Raymond24240
Jameson Williams23160
Josh Reynolds11130
Craig Reynolds11120
Brock Wright1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +74.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Raiders.

Half-point at risk

4.71%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.2%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.20
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.39
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.29