Closing spread
DET -1
Total
47.5
Model margin
+2.3est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Raiders
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DET lead 5–1 since 1999
Meetings average 45.7 points. OAK are 1-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 29/52 | 391 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Smith | 15 | 43 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Stefan Logan | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Titus Young | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Keiland Williams | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 9 | 14 | 214 | 2 |
| Nate Burleson | 7 | 11 | 81 | 1 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 5 | 11 | 49 | 0 |
| Titus Young | 5 | 10 | 21 | 1 |
| Stefan Logan | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Tony Scheffler | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Kevin Smith | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.1%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.24
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.25
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.