2011 · Week 15

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

28·27

Raiders

Oakland

QB Carson Palmer

O.co Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 50°F · wind 1mph

Closing spread

DET -1

Total

47.5

Model margin

+2.3est.

OAK perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

DET lead 5–1 since 1999

Meetings average 45.7 points. OAK are 1-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W8LV @ DET14–26DET
2019 · W9DET @ OAK24–31RAIDERS
2015 · W11OAK @ DET13–18DET
2007 · W1DET @ OAK36–21DET
2003 · W9OAK @ DET13–23DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–OAK
DETQ1 15:00427Punt0–0
LVQ1 12:45745Turnover on downs0–0
DETQ1 8:55515Punt0–0
LVQ1 7:39544Touchdown0–7
DETQ1 6:19875Touchdown7–7
LVQ1 3:34619Punt7–7
DETQ1 0:18624Punt7–7
LVQ2 12:33799Touchdown7–14
DETQ2 9:07613Punt7–14
LVQ2 5:5432Punt7–14
DETQ2 3:41663Touchdown14–14
LVQ2 1:14551Field goal14–17
LVQ3 15:00953Punt14–17
DETQ3 10:05830Punt14–17
LVQ3 6:44516Punt14–17
DETQ3 4:05731Turnover on downs14–17
LVQ3 1:17346Turnover14–17
DETQ3 0:02614Punt14–17
LVQ4 12:13828Field goal14–20
DETQ4 8:123-8Opp touchdown14–27
DETQ4 7:471157Touchdown21–27
LVQ4 4:59637Punt21–27
DETQ4 2:14991Touchdown28–27
LVQ4 0:39537Missed field goal28–27

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford29/5239140

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kevin Smith15432.90
Stefan Logan155.00
Matthew Stafford155.00
Titus Young144.00
Keiland Williams100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Johnson9142142
Nate Burleson711811
Brandon Pettigrew511490
Titus Young510211
Stefan Logan11190
Tony Scheffler1140
Kevin Smith1330

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -14.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

2.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.1%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.24
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.25

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.