Closing spread
OAK -3
Total
39.5
Model margin
+4.9est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DET lead 5–1 since 1999
Meetings average 45.7 points. OAK are 1-4-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DET–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 13:31 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DET | Q1 10:53 | 14 | 104 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 3:33 | 8 | 53 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| DET | Q2 13:11 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q2 10:33 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DET | Q2 9:13 | 2 | 37 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LV | Q2 8:27 | 11 | 57 | Missed field goal | 7–0 |
| DET | Q2 2:18 | 6 | 36 | Field goal | 10–0 |
| LV | Q2 1:10 | 8 | 41 | Missed field goal | 10–0 |
| DET | Q2 0:03 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–0 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 34 | Turnover | 10–0 |
| DET | Q3 11:24 | 4 | 33 | Touchdown | 17–0 |
| LV | Q3 9:15 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 17–0 |
| DET | Q3 7:31 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 17–0 |
| LV | Q3 6:11 | 6 | 62 | Touchdown | 17–7 |
| DET | Q3 3:49 | 3 | 20 | Turnover | 17–7 |
| LV | Q3 2:18 | 4 | 27 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| DET | Q3 0:49 | 7 | 33 | Field goal | 20–14 |
| LV | Q4 12:13 | 8 | 70 | Touchdown | 20–21 |
| DET | Q4 7:43 | 8 | 80 | Touchdown | 26–21 |
| LV | Q4 4:15 | 2 | 5 | Turnover | 26–21 |
| DET | Q4 3:01 | 3 | 10 | Field goal | 29–21 |
| LV | Q4 1:56 | 1 | -14 | Turnover | 29–21 |
| DET | Q4 1:37 | 3 | 23 | Touchdown | 36–21 |
| LV | Q4 1:16 | 3 | 4 | End of half | 36–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 27/36 | 289 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatum Bell | 15 | 87 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Jon Kitna | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
7.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.2%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.38
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.94
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.