Closing spread
OAK -3
Total
39.5
Model margin
+4.9est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DET lead 5–1 since 1999
Meetings average 45.7 points. OAK are 1-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 27/36 | 289 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatum Bell | 15 | 87 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Jon Kitna | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
7.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.2%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.38
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.94
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.