Closing spread
OAK -2
Total
50
Model margin
+2.9est.
DET perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Lions
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DET lead 5–1 since 1999
Meetings average 45.7 points. DET are 4-1-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 22/35 | 282 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ameer Abdullah | 12 | 44 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 6 | 31 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Joique Bell | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 5 | 9 | 88 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 8 | 11 | 73 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 5 | 6 | 72 | 0 |
| Lance Moore | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.01%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.9%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.43
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.91
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.