2020 · Postseason
Week 17
Week 17: 16 games played. Ravens produced the widest margin at 35 points; the tightest finish was Raiders at Broncos, decided by 1.
Briefing7
Bengals start Brandon Allen rather than Joe Burrow, which the model treats as worth about 5.7 points against them.
Steelers start Mason Rudolph rather than Ben Roethlisberger, which the model treats as worth about 5.0 points for them.
Jaguars start Mike Glennon rather than Gardner Minshew II, which the model treats as worth about 5.8 points against them.
Chiefs start Chad Henne rather than Patrick Mahomes, which the model treats as worth about 1.1 points for them.
Packers lead the league in offensive EPA per play at +0.221, 0.032 clear of second.
Rams have been the most efficient defence, allowing -0.164 EPA per play.
The model's widest disagreement with the market is Commanders at Eagles, where it rates Eagles about 9.4 points better than the line. Worth understanding, not worth backing — the model's picks have gone 49.93% against the spread historically, below the 52.38% needed to break even.
Slate
