2020 · Week 7

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jimmy Garoppolo

33·6

Patriots

New England

QB Cam Newton

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · grass · 49°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

NE -3

Total

44

Model margin

-1.1est.

NE perspective

Push chance

7.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Patriots wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapPatriots
  • +0.010EPA / play+0.004
  • 45.8%Success rate46.5%
  • +0.089EPA / dropback-0.040
  • -0.106EPA / rush+0.052
  • 9.4%Explosive rate9.4%
  • -1.74CPOE-2.06
  • 39.6%Third-down rate41.3%
  • 71.8%Red-zone TD rate54.0%
  • 2.03Points / drive1.88
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. NE are 3-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W4NE @ SF13–30SF
2016 · W11NE @ SF30–17NE
2012 · W15SF @ NE41–34SF
2008 · W5NE @ SF30–21NE
2004 · W17SF @ NE7–21NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–NE
SFQ1 15:00975Touchdown7–0
NEQ1 9:56520Punt7–0
SFQ1 7:12933Turnover7–0
NEQ1 2:02615Field goal7–3
SFQ2 14:561061Field goal10–3
NEQ2 9:0010Turnover10–3
SFQ2 8:46538Touchdown16–3
NEQ2 6:2334Punt16–3
SFQ2 4:42894Touchdown23–3
NEQ2 0:59320Turnover23–3
SFQ2 0:1420Turnover23–3
NEQ3 15:00750Field goal23–6
SFQ3 10:48684Touchdown30–6
NEQ3 7:32741Turnover30–6
SFQ3 4:47955Field goal33–6
NEQ4 13:27935Turnover33–6
SFQ4 9:23827Punt33–6
NEQ4 3:061156End of half33–6

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Garoppolo20/2527702

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jeff Wilson171126.63
JaMycal Hasty9576.30
Deebo Samuel Sr.372.30
Jimmy Garoppolo144.00
Jerick McKinnon3-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Aiyuk671150
Deebo Samuel Sr.55650
George Kittle57550
JaMycal Hasty11160
Jeff Wilson2280
Kendrick Bourne0100

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton9/159803
Jarrett Stidham6/106401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Damien Harris10585.80
Cam Newton5193.80
Rex Burkhead4123.00
Jarrett Stidham231.50
Jakobi Meyers122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jakobi Meyers46600
Rex Burkhead34350
Damiere Byrd12160
Julian Edelman13130
Damien Harris11120
Ryan Izzo1180
Dalton Keene1180
N'Keal Harry1260
James White1130
Jakob Johnson1110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.8%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

7.21%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.1%

Expected total

41.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.57
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.23
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.10