Closing spread
NE -3
Total
44
Model margin
-1.1est.
NE perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.010EPA / play+0.004
- 45.8%Success rate46.5%
- +0.089EPA / dropback-0.040
- -0.106EPA / rush+0.052
- 9.4%Explosive rate9.4%
- -1.74CPOE-2.06
- 39.6%Third-down rate41.3%
- 71.8%Red-zone TD rate54.0%
- 2.03Points / drive1.88
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. NE are 3-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 20/25 | 277 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Wilson | 17 | 112 | 6.6 | 3 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 9 | 57 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Aiyuk | 6 | 7 | 115 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 5 | 5 | 65 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 5 | 7 | 55 | 0 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Jeff Wilson | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 9/15 | 98 | 0 | 3 |
| Jarrett Stidham | 6/10 | 64 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damien Harris | 10 | 58 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jarrett Stidham | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakobi Meyers | 4 | 6 | 60 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Damiere Byrd | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Damien Harris | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Ryan Izzo | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Dalton Keene | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| N'Keal Harry | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| James White | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Jakob Johnson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
7.21%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.1%
Expected total
41.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.57
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-2.23
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.10