2024 · Week 4

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Jacoby Brissett

13·30

49ers

San Francisco

QB Brock Purdy

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 71°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

SF -10.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+4.1est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge map49ers
  • -0.081EPA / play+0.063
  • 42.5%Success rate46.0%
  • -0.020EPA / dropback+0.142
  • -0.187EPA / rush-0.059
  • 7.0%Explosive rate10.5%
  • +1.54CPOE+1.77
  • 35.0%Third-down rate43.1%
  • 54.2%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
  • 1.51Points / drive2.24
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. SF are 3-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2020 · W7SF @ NE33–6SF
2016 · W11NE @ SF30–17NE
2012 · W15SF @ NE41–34SF
2008 · W5NE @ SF30–21NE
2004 · W17SF @ NE7–21NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–SF
NEQ1 15:00929Punt0–0
SFQ1 10:111490Field goal0–3
NEQ1 2:2610Turnover0–3
SFQ1 2:15422Field goal0–6
NEQ1 0:0635Opp touchdown0–13
NEQ2 14:011245Turnover on downs0–13
SFQ2 8:071195Touchdown0–20
NEQ2 3:1133Punt0–20
SFQ2 1:4330Punt0–20
NEQ2 0:383-6Field goal3–20
SFQ3 15:0000Touchdown3–20
NEQ3 14:54527Touchdown10–20
SFQ3 12:05470Touchdown10–27
NEQ3 10:08419Punt10–27
SFQ3 7:54621Punt10–27
NEQ3 4:5141Punt10–27
SFQ3 2:56427Punt10–27
NEQ3 0:33819Field goal13–27
SFQ4 13:26452Turnover13–27
NEQ4 11:19717Turnover on downs13–27
SFQ4 8:1858Field goal13–30
NEQ4 4:58554Turnover13–30
SFQ4 2:44647End of half13–30

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett19/3216811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rhamondre Stevenson13433.30
JaMycal Hasty3155.00
Antonio Gibson6122.00
Jacoby Brissett231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Gibson34670
Ja'Lynn Polk37300
Rhamondre Stevenson45190
Austin Hooper22131
DeMario Douglas33130
Hunter Henry23120
Kayshon Boutte11110
K.J. Osborn1530
JaMycal Hasty0100
Tyquan Thornton0100

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Purdy15/2728811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Mason241235.11
Deebo Samuel Sr.2147.00
Brock Purdy5112.20
Isaac Guerendo100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jauan Jennings36880
Deebo Samuel Sr.35580
Brandon Aiyuk25480
George Kittle44451
Jordan Mason23370
Chris Conley0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.56.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

1.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.0%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.62
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+4.08