Closing spread
SF -10.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+4.1est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.081EPA / play+0.063
- 42.5%Success rate46.0%
- -0.020EPA / dropback+0.142
- -0.187EPA / rush-0.059
- 7.0%Explosive rate10.5%
- +1.54CPOE+1.77
- 35.0%Third-down rate43.1%
- 54.2%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
- 1.51Points / drive2.24
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. SF are 3-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 19/32 | 168 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 13 | 43 | 3.3 | 0 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Gibson | 3 | 4 | 67 | 0 |
| Ja'Lynn Polk | 3 | 7 | 30 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 4 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 2 | 2 | 13 | 1 |
| DeMario Douglas | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| K.J. Osborn | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyquan Thornton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 15/27 | 288 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Mason | 24 | 123 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Brock Purdy | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Isaac Guerendo | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jauan Jennings | 3 | 6 | 88 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 3 | 5 | 58 | 0 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 2 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 4 | 4 | 45 | 1 |
| Jordan Mason | 2 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
1.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.0%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.62
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+1.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+4.08