2016 · Week 11

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

30·17

49ers

San Francisco

QB Colin Kaepernick

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 64°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

NE -10.5

Total

51.5

Model margin

-4.1est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge map49ers
  • +0.128EPA / play-0.089
  • 44.3%Success rate39.6%
  • +0.276EPA / dropback-0.036
  • -0.077EPA / rush-0.169
  • 8.6%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +2.98CPOE-5.73
  • 47.3%Third-down rate34.6%
  • 64.5%Red-zone TD rate72.1%
  • 2.47Points / drive1.59
  • 0.7%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. SF are 3-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W4NE @ SF13–30SF
2020 · W7SF @ NE33–6SF
2012 · W15SF @ NE41–34SF
2008 · W5NE @ SF30–21NE
2004 · W17SF @ NE7–21NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–SF
SFQ1 15:003-11Punt0–0
NEQ1 13:03627Touchdown6–0
SFQ1 10:101165Field goal6–3
NEQ1 2:41677Touchdown13–3
SFQ2 14:53517Punt13–3
NEQ2 12:18840Punt13–3
SFQ2 9:13987Touchdown13–10
NEQ2 4:563-7Punt13–10
SFQ2 4:0035Punt13–10
NEQ2 1:53852End of half13–10
NEQ3 15:0038Punt13–10
SFQ3 13:28519Punt13–10
NEQ3 10:46815Punt13–10
SFQ3 6:57635Punt13–10
NEQ3 4:161080Touchdown20–10
SFQ4 14:5534Punt20–10
NEQ4 13:5731Punt20–10
SFQ4 13:023-3Punt20–10
NEQ4 12:01665Touchdown27–10
SFQ4 10:0631Punt27–10
NEQ4 9:15750Field goal30–10
SFQ4 6:111280Touchdown30–17
NEQ4 2:06737End of half30–17

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady24/4028040

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount191246.50
Dion Lewis5234.60
Tom Brady4123.00
Julian Edelman2126.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Malcolm Mitchell45981
Julian Edelman817771
James White66631
Dion Lewis35260
Martellus Bennett12140
Danny Amendola2321

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colin Kaepernick16/3020620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Carlos Hyde19864.50
Colin Kaepernick4328.00
DuJuan Harris441.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Vance McDonald36461
Shaun Draughn33431
Garrett Celek33410
Chris Harper22350
Carlos Hyde33240
Quinton Patton25170
Jeremy Kerley0600
Rod Streater0100
Aaron Burbridge0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -10.52.9%3.2%4.9%3.2%7.5%6.7%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

3.17%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

38.3%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.81
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-4.07