Closing spread
NE -10.5
Total
51.5
Model margin
-4.1est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.128EPA / play-0.089
- 44.3%Success rate39.6%
- +0.276EPA / dropback-0.036
- -0.077EPA / rush-0.169
- 8.6%Explosive rate8.0%
- +2.98CPOE-5.73
- 47.3%Third-down rate34.6%
- 64.5%Red-zone TD rate72.1%
- 2.47Points / drive1.59
- 0.7%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. SF are 3-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 24/40 | 280 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 19 | 124 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malcolm Mitchell | 4 | 5 | 98 | 1 |
| Julian Edelman | 8 | 17 | 77 | 1 |
| James White | 6 | 6 | 63 | 1 |
| Dion Lewis | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 16/30 | 206 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Hyde | 19 | 86 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 4 | 32 | 8.0 | 0 |
| DuJuan Harris | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vance McDonald | 3 | 6 | 46 | 1 |
| Shaun Draughn | 3 | 3 | 43 | 1 |
| Garrett Celek | 3 | 3 | 41 | 0 |
| Chris Harper | 2 | 2 | 35 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Quinton Patton | 2 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| Rod Streater | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Aaron Burbridge | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
3.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
38.3%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.81
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-4.07