Closing spread
NE -4
Total
47
Model margin
+3.7est.
NE perspective
Push chance
2.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.105EPA / play+0.176
- 47.9%Success rate50.2%
- +0.170EPA / dropback+0.282
- +0.029EPA / rush+0.031
- 12.9%Explosive rate9.5%
- +5.02CPOE+1.48
- 35.1%Third-down rate48.4%
- 54.7%Red-zone TD rate70.9%
- 1.92Points / drive2.71
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. NE are 3-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 14/25 | 221 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 21 | 83 | 4.0 | 0 |
| LaMichael James | 8 | 31 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Crabtree | 7 | 12 | 107 | 2 |
| Randy Moss | 2 | 4 | 36 | 1 |
| Frank Gore | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 2 | 2 | 34 | 1 |
| Vernon Davis | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| LaMichael James | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 36/65 | 443 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Woodhead | 12 | 61 | 5.1 | 2 |
| Stevan Ridley | 9 | 23 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lloyd | 10 | 16 | 190 | 0 |
| Aaron Hernandez | 10 | 19 | 92 | 1 |
| Wes Welker | 5 | 9 | 56 | 0 |
| Michael Hoomanawanui | 1 | 1 | 41 | 0 |
| Deion Branch | 4 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 5 | 10 | 23 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Stevan Ridley | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.9%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.28
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.69