2012 · Week 15

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Colin Kaepernick

41·34

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 34°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

NE -4

Total

47

Model margin

+3.7est.

NE perspective

Push chance

2.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Patriots wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapPatriots
  • +0.105EPA / play+0.176
  • 47.9%Success rate50.2%
  • +0.170EPA / dropback+0.282
  • +0.029EPA / rush+0.031
  • 12.9%Explosive rate9.5%
  • +5.02CPOE+1.48
  • 35.1%Third-down rate48.4%
  • 54.7%Red-zone TD rate70.9%
  • 1.92Points / drive2.71
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. NE are 3-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W4NE @ SF13–30SF
2020 · W7SF @ NE33–6SF
2016 · W11NE @ SF30–17NE
2008 · W5NE @ SF30–21NE
2004 · W17SF @ NE7–21NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–NE
NEQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
SFQ1 13:35663Touchdown7–0
NEQ1 10:55425Punt7–0
SFQ1 9:4839Punt7–0
NEQ1 8:0210Turnover7–0
SFQ1 7:4220Turnover7–0
NEQ1 7:3137Punt7–0
SFQ1 6:13742Missed field goal7–0
NEQ1 2:1438Turnover7–0
SFQ1 1:0049Turnover on downs7–0
NEQ2 14:551562Field goal7–3
SFQ2 8:31445Touchdown14–3
NEQ2 6:5934Punt14–3
SFQ2 6:041586Field goal17–3
SFQ3 15:00732Turnover17–3
NEQ3 11:37449Turnover23–3
SFQ3 10:4410Touchdown24–3
NEQ3 10:3820Turnover30–3
SFQ3 10:26127Touchdown31–3
NEQ3 10:211478Touchdown31–10
SFQ3 5:59417Punt31–10
NEQ3 3:39986Touchdown31–17
SFQ4 14:5836Punt31–17
NEQ4 13:17728Touchdown31–24
SFQ4 12:1346Punt31–24
NEQ4 9:56787Touchdown31–31
SFQ4 6:43138Touchdown38–31
NEQ4 6:25513Punt38–31
SFQ4 4:4037Punt38–31
NEQ4 2:5649Turnover on downs38–31
SFQ4 2:2032Field goal41–31
NEQ4 1:56857Field goal41–34
SFQ4 0:381-1End of half41–34

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colin Kaepernick14/2522141

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore21834.00
LaMichael James8313.90
Colin Kaepernick7284.00
Anthony Dixon273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Crabtree7121072
Randy Moss24361
Frank Gore22340
Delanie Walker22341
Vernon Davis13100
LaMichael James0200

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady36/6544312

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Danny Woodhead12615.12
Stevan Ridley9232.60
Tom Brady3113.71

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Lloyd10161900
Aaron Hernandez1019921
Wes Welker59560
Michael Hoomanawanui11410
Deion Branch45370
Danny Woodhead510230
Shane Vereen1140
Stevan Ridley0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.8%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.9%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.28
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+3.69